OPTIONS & MACRO Snapshot: Crypto Volatility at 90-Day Lows While Institutions Buy Protection The FOMC May minutes released Wednesday confirmed a two-sided framework with a majority warning hikes may be needed if inflation persists; the 10-year eased back to 4.56% from a 52-week high of 4.687% intra-week, with markets pricing roughly 34% odds of a 2026 hike. NVDA beat strongly ($81.6B revenue, +85% YoY) but the stock fell on buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news; April PCE lands May 28. Inside crypto, BTC and ETH IV compressed further to 90-day lows (0th percentile), VRP unwound from its extreme (BTC 75th, ETH 33rd), and ETH positioning is at a 90-day high crowded long while institutional block flow turned heavy puts.
Amberdata Digital Asset Snapshot: Crypto Markets Tighten as BTC Funding Flips Positive FOMC May minutes confirmed a two-sided framework with hike risk in play; the 10-year eased to 4.56% from a 52-week high of 4.687%, with NVDA beating but falling on buy-the-rumor. April PCE on May 28 is the first inflation read of the Warsh era as the Iran oil shock still feeds through. Inside crypto, BTC funding flipped positive (96th percentile), liquidity tightened, and ETF streaks turned positive on still-negative 7-day flows; not a regime change.
Implied Volatility: Reading the Market's Forecast Why ATM IV Is the Floor, Not the Forecast: Reading Level, Rank, Shape, and the Surface in Coordination