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Inflation reaccelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, with the 10-year at 4.61% and markets pricing a Fed hike under newly confirmed Chair Warsh. The Iran oil shock continues to feed through energy at +17.9% and shelter, while apparel, airlines, and household goods face two more quarters of tariff pass-through. Inside crypto, BTC funding is negative while altcoin long/short ratios stretch and ETF outflows persist; the mix is not a regime change.
Percentile rankings: 90-day rolling window. Green = health, red = stress, amber = neutral, monitor closely. Values and changes ranked over 90 days; deeper colour signals proximity to recent highs or lows.
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Executive Summary
1. Market
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BTC at $77.0K (73rd percentile) holds while dispersion runs wide: DOGE 81st, LINK 83rd, BNB 76th outperform while AAVE sits at a 90-day low and WLFI at the 7th. ETH's RV ratio of 0.72x (3rd percentile) signals decelerating short-term vol. Deriv/spot ratios run hot, with ETH at 7.90x and BTC at 4.58x both above the 75th, against spot volumes at or below the 25th. BTC/ETH correlation at 0.82 (30D) confirms cohesion.
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2. Liquidity
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Spreads sit at or near 90-day highs: BTC at the 100th, ETH at the 99th, SOL at the 99th percentile. Bid imbalance is the constructive offset: BTC at 91st, ETH at 97th, SOL at a 90-day high (64.5%). Depth at the 50bps tier is below the 25th percentile across majors, and BTC's depth concentration at 26.0% indicates a fragmented book.
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3. Rates
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BTC funding sits negative at -2.6% APR (40th percentile) while the cross-market aggregate is +4.2% (81st): the divergence is BTC-specific short positioning rather than an ecosystem stance. BNB at +8.1% (75th), UNI at +10.0% (92nd), AVAX at +8.3% (91st) show crowded longs in select alts. BTC basis at 0.0% (3rd percentile) is compressed; ETH term spread of 12bps (94th) reflects ETH-specific demand.
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4. Positioning
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Open interest is broadly elevated: BTC at 78th, ETH at 72nd, SOL at 78th, BNB at 89th. Long/short ratios skew heavily long for alts: ETH 2.13x (92nd), SOL 2.24x (91st), XRP 2.98x (99th), LINK 2.32x (98th), while BTC sits more balanced at 1.28x (57th). Liquidations ran long-dominant: BTC $59.7M longs vs $23.7M shorts. The squeeze is on longs, not shorts.
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5. ETF Flows
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BTC saw -$290M daily and -$867M over 7 days, both 1st-percentile reads on the 90-day distribution; streak is -1. ETH posted -$30M daily and -$198M over 7 days on a -2-session streak. BTC ETF holdings hold at 7.0% of supply (72nd); ETH at 3.8% (19th) remains structurally underowned. AUM diverges: BTC at $108.6B (72nd) versus ETH at $9.8B (3rd).
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6. Stablecoin
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USDC contracted -$444M over 7 days (17th percentile) with velocity at a 90-day low. USDe expanded +$374M with a mint/burn ratio of 38.6x at the 90-day high, while USDS expanded +$104M (93rd percentile). USDT supply hit a 90-day high at $187.9B (89th) but velocity at 1.75x is suppressed at the 25th percentile. The rotation is into yield-bearing stables, not spot risk.
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7. DeFi Lending
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Total DeFi TVL is at a 90-day low ($27.6B, 0th percentile), dominated by AaveV3 at $20.5B. Utilization at AaveV3 sits at 41.8% while borrow APR is contained at 2.3%. ETH staking APY is at 2.7% with the leveraged carry spread at -0.4% (51st percentile), marginally negative: the unwind incentive is in place. sfrxETH, lsETH, oETH all at 90-day lows confirm broad yield compression.
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Methodology
Universe. Spot and derivatives data cover BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, UNI, AAVE and WLFI across the major institutional venues: Binance, Bybit and OKX. Stablecoin coverage spans USDT, USDC, DAI, USDS, USDe and the long tail across Ethereum, Tron, Arbitrum, Optimism, Avalanche, Polygon, BNB Chain and Base. DeFi lending metrics aggregate Aave v2/v3, Compound v2/v3 and MakerDAO across EVM chains.
Price construction. The headline close on each asset references the highest-volume instrument on each day, typically the Binance perpetual for BTC and ETH. VWAP is volume-weighted across all instruments and venues for the day, computed as the sum of close times volume divided by total volume. All return-based metrics, including realized volatility, rolling correlation, skewness and kurtosis, derive from the cross-venue VWAP series rather than any single venue's last print. Using VWAP avoids non-deterministic aggregation noise that would otherwise contaminate rolling windows.
Realized volatility. Annualised standard deviation of daily log returns, scaled by sqrt(365). 7D RVol uses a 7-day trailing window, 30D uses 30. The RV ratio (7D divided by 30D) flags acceleration when above 1 and deceleration when below.
Cross-asset correlation. Rolling Pearson on daily log returns of VWAP. 30D and 90D windows reported on the BTC and ETH series.
Polarity. Every metric carries a polarity flag describing whether higher values are positive, negative or neutral for the asset or market. Bullish metrics (polarity +1) include net flows, holdings, volumes and TVL, where higher is better. Bearish metrics (polarity -1) include liquidations and funding rates, where higher signals stress (positive funding means longs are paying shorts). Neutral metrics (polarity 0) cover supply levels, dominance, chain share, options Greeks, macro reference series, and most positioning and rates context fields, where direction has no inherent good or bad interpretation. Polarity is set per metric in the catalog and feeds the colour rules below.
Percentile rankings and colouring. Every "90D Pctl" indicator computes the rank of the current value within its trailing 90-day distribution. The colour applied to a cell combines polarity with percentile rank. For bullish-polarity metrics, values near the recent high tint green and values near the recent low tint red. For bearish-polarity metrics the mapping inverts: values near the recent high tint red, values near the recent low tint green. Neutral-polarity metrics tint amber throughout, with deeper amber near the high and low extremes of the distribution; the colour conveys position in the 90-day range without implying good or bad. Across all polarities, shade intensity (light versus dark) scales with proximity to the distribution edge.
Sign-aware flow colouring. Flow-type metrics (ETF daily flows, stablecoin net mints) apply an additional sign-aware rule on top of the percentile-rank colour. On a bullish-polarity flow metric, negative values always tint red and positive values always tint green, with intensity still drawn from the percentile rank. This prevents a "less negative than usual" outflow from rendering green just because the 90-day distribution skews negative.
ETF flow streak. Signed consecutive days of same-direction flow, counted only over days with non-zero reported flow. Weekend rows and any rows preceding a delayed source refresh carry the prior streak forward without incrementing.
Liquidity. Spot order-book depth measured at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 basis points from mid-price, summed across the covered venues. Depth values are USD-equivalent at the venue's mid. Spread metrics report the bid-ask spread in basis points; lower readings reflect tighter, more liquid markets.
Funding and basis. Perpetual swap funding rates are sampled at the venue's reporting interval (typically 8 hours) and annualised. Cumulative funding sums the realised rate over 7, 30 and 90-day rolling windows. Term basis (7D, 30D, 90D, 180D) is derived from the quarterly futures premium to spot, annualised to APR. The term spread captures the slope across the front-month and back-month basis curves.
DeFi. Lending metrics (TVL, total borrowed, utilization, borrow APR, liquidations, protocol revenue) sourced from on-chain protocol contracts via daily aggregations. The ETH borrow-vs-staking spread compares the cross-protocol weighted-average ETH borrow APR against the 7-day staking APY for ETH-collateral liquid staking tokens including ankrETH, cbETH, lsETH, oETH, sfrxETH, stETH, swETH and wbETH.
Refresh cadence. Reports build T+1 from end-of-day data. ETF flow data refreshes on US trading days only; weekend rows reflect the Friday close. Source freshness is verified at build time, and sections drawing on delayed upstream data carry an explicit "As of [date]" label in the panel title.
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Links & Resources
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Recommended next reads
ETF Cost Basis Series
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- Part 2/3: Who Breaks First (ETF Cost Basis)
- Part 3/3: The Stress Test (ETF Cost Basis)
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- Amberdata Crypto Market Review 2025 and 2026 Outlook: Six Regimes, One Story
- Bitcoin's Great Rotation: Who Bought the Dip and Why It Matters
- Beyond the Spread: Market Impact and Execution
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