Q1 2025 was a defining quarter for Bitcoin, marked by extreme price swings, key regulatory breakthroughs, and intensified institutional participation. Despite geopolitical turbulence and security breaches shaking investor confidence, Bitcoin reached historic highs near $109,000, underscoring the critical role of integrated on-chain and off-chain data in navigating an increasingly complex market landscape.
Welcome to Amberdata’s Q1 2025 Bitcoin Market Intelligence Report—a quarter marked by remarkable volatility, critical regulatory developments, and substantial institutional activity shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Early 2025 saw Bitcoin reach unprecedented highs near $109,000, only to experience pronounced pullbacks driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory announcements, and significant security breaches affecting major exchanges. Events such as the inauguration of a crypto-supportive U.S. administration, coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions, amplified these rapid sentiment shifts, underscoring the complex dynamics at play within Bitcoin markets.
At Amberdata, our goal is to illuminate these intricate market movements by providing detailed analytics across essential metrics, including ownership concentration, transaction behaviors, ETF fund flows, and derivatives market dynamics. By integrating comprehensive on-chain data with precise off-chain market intelligence, our platform equips institutions, traders, and analysts with the tools to navigate Bitcoin's volatility confidently. Whether you're tracking strategic whale accumulations, monitoring shifts in Bitcoin ETF holdings, or analyzing nuanced signals like UTXO distributions and exchange funding rates, Amberdata delivers the actionable insights necessary for informed decision-making in this rapidly evolving market environment.
Comprehensive, real-time data is essential for effectively navigating the crypto market, particularly given its volatility and rapid evolution. Insights into Bitcoin and Ethereum metrics, such as UTXO age distributions, holder accumulation patterns, and open interest trends, help investors and traders accurately assess market sentiment and underlying network strength. Additionally, stablecoin activity—including issuance trends, transaction volumes, and velocity metrics—can provide early signals about liquidity shifts and investor risk appetite.
Exchange-specific data, such as spot and derivatives volumes, funding rates, and long-short ratios, further enrich this analytical framework, offering crucial visibility into market positioning and potential leverage risks. Amberdata equips institutions and traders with these critical insights, enabling precise risk management and informed investment decisions. For more detailed research and analysis, visit our research blog. To explore how Amberdata can support your market strategies, contact us or request a demo.
The first quarter of 2025 was marked by significant volatility driven by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and major security incidents, highlighting once again the crucial insights provided by analyzing on-chain metrics to explain Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin reached an historic peak near $109,000 following the inauguration of the U.S. President Donald Trump but quickly corrected amid investor anxiety about delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, briefly falling below $90,000. February's market sentiment suffered a severe setback when Bybit experienced a $1.5 billion security breach, accelerating Bitcoin's decline into the high $70,000 range by March and April, intensified further by fears surrounding new U.S. tariffs. Institutional activity remained robust despite volatility. MicroStrategy notably increased its holdings by purchasing around 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.1 billion), reaching a total of nearly 461,000 BTC. ETF dynamics highlighted mixed investor sentiment: January saw strong inflows totaling around $4.5 billion, whereas February and March recorded notable outflows, including BlackRock reducing its Bitcoin holdings by 4,873 BTC in April alone. Concurrently, mid-tier holders (100–1000 BTC) expanded their share of total supply from 22.9% to 23.07%, underscoring sustained institutional confidence amidst broader market turbulence.
Q1 2025 was characterized by significant volatility and key developments within Bitcoin’s ecosystem, influenced strongly by macroeconomic dynamics and pivotal institutional decisions. Starting from late-2024 highs exceeding $100,000, Bitcoin experienced substantial corrections and strategic shifts shaped by network milestones, regulatory announcements, and major institutional moves.
January began with an important network milestone: on January 3, Bitcoin’s network hash rate achieved a new all-time high, coinciding notably with Bitcoin’s 16th genesis anniversary. This increase underscored sustained confidence from miners and growing investment into network security. Market volatility soon followed; on January 13, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 due to market concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay anticipated interest rate cuts, thus triggering broader risk-off sentiment.
However, optimism quickly returned around mid-month. On January 20, Bitcoin surged dramatically, setting a new all-time high near $109,000 immediately after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald J. Trump. Investor sentiment turned bullish, driven by expectations of favorable crypto regulations under the new administration. Institutional confidence was further validated when, on January 21, MicroStrategy disclosed a substantial purchase of approximately 11,000 BTC (valued at $1.1 billion), bringing their total Bitcoin holdings close to 461,000 BTC. January ended positively, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experiencing near-record net inflows totaling roughly $4.5 billion, reflecting strong institutional appetite.
February’s optimism was abruptly disrupted by a significant security event. On February 21, the Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a major security breach resulting in losses totaling around $1.5 billion in digital assets. This hack severely damaged investor confidence, triggering a swift market sell-off. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply, retreating again below the critical $90,000 mark by February 25, reaching lows around $84,000 (as low as $78,000 in March and April), exacerbated by macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from escalating trade tensions due to President Trump’s new tariff threats.
In March, Bitcoin regained momentum due to significant regulatory and institutional support in the United States. On March 6, President Trump signed an unprecedented executive order establishing a U.S. “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” mandating that Bitcoin seized in federal criminal investigations be held long-term rather than liquidated, effectively recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset at the national policy level. Shortly thereafter, on March 7, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced updated regulatory guidance explicitly authorizing federally chartered banks to custody cryptocurrencies and facilitate stablecoin transactions, further bolstering Bitcoin’s legitimacy and potential for institutional integration.
However, market anxiety briefly resurfaced on March 11, when the Mt. Gox rehabilitation trustee moved approximately $900 million worth of Bitcoin, prompting speculation of imminent repayments to creditors and fears of potential market flooding. These concerns were mitigated soon after, as trustee repayments were confirmed delayed until October 2025. The month concluded positively, with Bitcoin mining difficulty reaching another all-time high on March 30, indicating robust network health and sustained miner confidence despite market fluctuations.
In April, regulatory optimism surged again. On April 9, the U.S. Senate confirmed Paul S. Atkins as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Known for his crypto-friendly stance, Atkins' appointment raised expectations of accelerated approvals for Bitcoin spot ETFs and greater regulatory clarity, signaling favorable conditions for institutional investors amid ongoing volatility.
From January to April 2025, cumulative Bitcoin ETF holdings showed mixed yet insightful trends, reflecting investor sentiment amid market volatility and macroeconomic factors. BlackRock continued to dominate, holding approximately 580,430 BTC by April 2025, despite a slight decline from its peak holdings of 588,024 BTC in January. Fidelity, however, saw a significant drop, with holdings decreasing from 19,280 BTC in January 2024 to just 5,290 BTC by April 2025, highlighting investor reallocations likely due to performance concerns and shifts toward more dominant providers such as BlackRock and 21Shares.
Grayscale Mini, introduced in mid-2024, rapidly gained traction, accumulating 40,392 BTC by April 2025, underlining strong retail and institutional interest in smaller, more flexible ETF structures. Meanwhile, established firms like Invesco and VanEck experienced volatility; Invesco’s holdings declined from 7,965 BTC in January to 4,941 BTC by April, indicating investor caution following Bitcoin’s significant market correction from nearly $98,000 down to the $70,000-$85,000 range. VanEck’s stability near 14,077 BTC by April suggests persistent institutional confidence, despite broader market turbulence.
Macro dynamics significantly influenced ETF flows. The market downturn between February and April 2025—driven by regulatory uncertainty, miner selling pressure, and broader risk-off sentiment—led to net outflows from several providers. Notably, Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree experienced steady declines, with WisdomTree’s holdings dropping sharply from 11,587 BTC in December 2024 to 1,548 BTC in April 2025, reflecting retail investor exits amid heightened volatility and competitive pressures from larger ETFs. Valkyrie similarly shrank from peaks around 7,591 BTC in early 2024 to about 2,991 BTC by April 2025.
Overall, these cumulative ETF trends underscore a critical shift in market structure: dominance consolidating around major players like BlackRock and Grayscale, alongside heightened sensitivity among smaller funds to both market conditions and investor sentiment. Institutional traders and brokerages must monitor these shifts closely, as sustained ETF outflows or inflows significantly influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. ETF dynamics, especially inflows to dominant providers or shifts driven by macroeconomic news—such as interest rate movements, regulatory updates, or broader financial market stress—are crucial indicators of broader market sentiment and future price stability.
Meanwhile, cumulative net flows into Bitcoin ETFs showcased notable shifts, capturing the evolving market dynamics amid Bitcoin's substantial price volatility. January initially indicated resilience, with aggregate inflows of around 38,200 BTC across major providers like BlackRock, Bitwise, and 21Shares. However, investor sentiment sharply reversed by February, primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory uncertainties, and the sharp market correction from the $98,000 peak to lows near $70,000–$85,000. February alone saw significant net outflows, including 4,136 BTC withdrawn from 21Shares and 2,785 BTC exiting BlackRock, underlining growing investor caution and portfolio de-risking.
March was a stabilization month, characterized by more moderate flows as the market attempted a cautious recovery. BlackRock stabilized with minimal change, adding a marginal 64 BTC, indicating institutional investors paused to reassess. Bitwise continued its steady net outflow pattern, losing an additional 720 BTC, reflecting a continued rotation from mid-sized ETF providers towards dominant and perceived safer alternatives. Notably, Grayscale Mini capitalized on this uncertainty, adding 823 BTC, signaling its growing appeal among smaller institutional and retail investors looking for flexible entry points.
April saw renewed selling pressure, particularly evident at BlackRock, which experienced outflows of 4,873 BTC, its largest monthly reduction in recent history, coinciding with ongoing fears of sustained market volatility, intensified by macro events such as tighter monetary policy signals from global central banks. Fidelity, surprisingly, reversed its trend by adding 1,375 BTC, suggesting selective investor appetite returning to historically strong financial brands after months of heavy withdrawals. Contrastingly, mid-tier ETFs like Valkyrie and VanEck faced persistent net outflows of 26 BTC and 198 BTC, respectively, highlighting continued market polarization.
Overall, cumulative ETF totals from January to April 2025 reflect heightened sensitivity of institutional capital flows to broader market conditions, macroeconomic news, and Bitcoin's price action. The divergence between larger institutional-backed ETFs and smaller or retail-focused ETFs emphasizes ongoing consolidation within the ETF market structure, as risk-averse capital continues gravitating towards stability or exits the space altogether amid persistent uncertainty. Traders and institutions should closely monitor these nuanced capital flow trends as early indicators of market sentiment, especially as regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors remain significant drivers of Bitcoin investment strategies.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin’s Gini coefficient—a measure of wealth concentration within the network—showed modest upward momentum, rising from 0.4675 in January to roughly 0.4677 by April. While this indicates only a slight increase in concentration, it’s notable following the similarly mild but consistent rise from late 2024. In Q4 2024, the coefficient edged upward from 0.4657 in December to 0.4667, coinciding with Bitcoin’s historic surge above $100,000, spurred by bullish macro catalysts including the U.S. election outcome, Fed policy shifts, and major spot ETF inflows. This suggests whale activity increased slightly as larger holders potentially took strategic positions ahead of anticipated macroeconomic and policy-driven price moves.
For institutional traders and market makers, the subtle but consistent rise into early 2025 suggests continued accumulation by whales—possibly anticipating Bitcoin’s volatility amid early-year geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties sparked by the Trump administration's tariffs. The relatively stable Gini coefficient also indicates broader distribution patterns remain largely intact; retail investors and smaller institutional holders continue playing a key role in market liquidity, mitigating extreme concentration risk. While profit-taking occurred, institutions (notably MicroStrategy and BlackRock’s ETF) largely held or incrementally added positions, reflecting conviction rather than speculation.
Overall, while modestly higher concentration could marginally amplify short-term volatility, especially amid the macro-driven uncertainty of early 2025, Bitcoin’s ownership structure remains relatively balanced compared to historic peaks. For both retail and institutional participants, this stable ownership landscape provides comfort that while whale movements deserve monitoring, they are not yet indicative of market imbalance or excessive manipulation risk.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin supply held by addresses owning between 100–1000 BTC saw continued growth, rising from approximately 22.9% to 23.07%. This upward trend builds on notable accumulation observed in Q4 2024, when these mid-tier investors increased their share from 20.8% in October to 22.5% in December. This segment—comprising hedge funds, family offices, smaller institutions, and affluent individual investors—has consistently absorbed Bitcoin supply, signaling ongoing confidence despite recent market turbulence.
This increased accumulation coincides notably with Bitcoin’s pullback from record highs above $100,000 down to the $70k–$85k range following heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration. The steady buying by mid-sized holders suggests strategic positioning rather than panic-selling, potentially stabilizing prices and preventing deeper declines. For institutions and brokerages, this signals resilience in underlying demand, reducing fears of protracted bear sentiment despite short-term volatility.
Conversely, larger holders (>10,000 BTC), typically major institutional entities and exchanges, reduced their relative holdings slightly from 15.0% to around 14.7% in early 2025. Their modest redistribution of supply could reflect tactical rebalancing in response to regulatory uncertainties or macroeconomic headwinds. Overall, the ongoing strength in mid-tier accumulation likely indicates a continued maturation and diversification of Bitcoin ownership, underpinning price support levels and providing traders a reassuring sign of long-term investor confidence even amid recent volatility.
The month-over-month change in holder counts by bucket measures how many addresses within specific Bitcoin balance ranges (e.g., 0–0.001 BTC, 1–10 BTC, or 100–1000 BTC) have increased or decreased. This metric provides critical insight into investor behavior—such as accumulation, consolidation, or retail exits—especially around periods of price volatility.
From January to April 2025, smaller address buckets (0–0.001 and 0.001–0.01 BTC) displayed significant fluctuations, reflecting retail investor uncertainty during the recent crash to the $70–$85k range. For instance, the 0–0.001 BTC segment surged by 180,558 addresses in March, possibly indicating new retail entrants attempting to buy the dip. Conversely, the 0.01–0.1 BTC bucket experienced consistent net losses, particularly a notable drop of 8,909 addresses in April, suggesting consolidation of funds or cautious exits.
Institutional-sized holders (100–1000 BTC) remained steady and slightly positive, continuing their net accumulation observed from Q4 2024. Notably, they added 923 addresses in December during peak volatility and maintained modest but positive growth into early 2025 (+191 in January and +152 in February). This pattern implies institutions and high-net-worth investors utilized the downturn strategically, likely anticipating recovery or viewing the crash as a long-term buying opportunity.
These shifts highlight a bifurcated market response: retail traders exhibited more volatile, reactionary behavior, while institutions showed steadier, opportunistic accumulation. For brokerages, market makers, and institutions, this indicates sustained institutional support at lower price levels, reducing downside risk and suggesting that despite short-term volatility, underlying market resilience remains intact.
Month-over-month changes in BTC supply held per bucket indicate shifts in actual Bitcoin balances within different investor groups. This metric provides direct insight into accumulation or distribution behavior, especially useful during periods of heightened market volatility, as seen in early 2025 following Bitcoin's correction from record highs above $100k down to the $70k–$85k range.
From January to April 2025, larger institutional-sized holders showed pronounced activity. The 100–1000 BTC bucket exhibited robust net accumulation in January (+93,060 BTC) and February (+62,651 BTC), aligning with the price correction and suggesting institutional buying on weakness. However, March saw significant distribution (-35,379 BTC), potentially indicating profit-taking or cautious repositioning amid continued price uncertainty. In April, accumulation resumed modestly (+9,350 BTC), signaling stabilizing institutional confidence.
Conversely, the largest whales (10,000+ BTC) steadily reduced holdings, notably shedding 52,443 BTC in January and another 5,537 BTC in March, before modestly adding 6,122 BTC in April. This highlights caution or rebalancing among the largest holders amid market turbulence.
Smaller retail buckets (0.1–1 and 1–10 BTC) showed mixed behavior. After significant selling pressure in January (-3,717 BTC and -9,992 BTC respectively), likely panic-induced during the initial crash, these groups briefly returned as buyers in February (+1,547 BTC and +6,765 BTC), possibly betting on short-term rebounds. By April, however, retail buckets showed renewed uncertainty, with the 1–10 BTC bucket notably selling again (-4,249 BTC).
Overall, early 2025 saw institutional and high-net-worth investors strategically accumulating amid price weakness, while retail investors exhibited uncertainty and volatility, highlighting the differing risk appetites across market segments. These dynamics suggest that institutional support remains firm at lower prices, potentially limiting further downside risk.
From January to April 2025, the UTXO Age Distribution, which tracks how long Bitcoin remains unspent, reveals important shifts in holding behaviors. UTXOs represent unspent transaction outputs, essentially "held" Bitcoin fragments; their age distribution indicates investor conviction, market sentiment, and liquidity availability.
The most significant trend was the notable rise in longer-term age buckets, particularly the "Over 8 Years" category, which rose from approximately 25.1 million to 26.4 million UTXOs—a nearly 1.3 million increase (~5%). This underscores very long-term holders, often large institutions or original adopters, increasing their conviction or remaining completely passive during market downturns. Similarly, the "5–8 Years" bucket saw moderate growth from 59.2 million to 59.5 million UTXOs, reflecting that early investors, possibly institutional funds or high-net-worth holders, remained steady despite price volatility and the recent price dip to the $70–85k range.
Conversely, shorter-term buckets, notably the "18–24 Months" and "1–3 Months" categories, saw sharp declines: from about 25 million to 17.4 million UTXOs (30% decline), and from 18.6 million to 11.4 million UTXOs (38% decline), respectively. This aligns closely with retail investor exits and mid-term speculative traders reducing exposure amid falling prices in Q1. These trends intensified notably in March, coinciding with market uncertainty triggered by macroeconomic conditions and significant selling pressure. However, a stabilization began by late March into April, with reductions in shorter-term categories slowing as prices began stabilizing.
From February through March 2025, the UTXO Value Distribution by Age Bucket highlights significant shifts in how Bitcoin wealth is held across different timeframes measured in BTC. Most notably, the “Over 8 Years” bucket grew substantially, increasing from 4.33 million BTC in early February to 4.48 million BTC by the end of March. This increase of roughly 150,000 BTC (3.5%) underscores deep conviction among long-term investors, likely including institutional holdings or original adopters, indicating continued accumulation or inactivity despite the price decline into the $70–85k range.
In contrast, younger UTXO categories witnessed notable outflows. The “1 Month–3 Months” bucket saw one of the steepest declines, shrinking dramatically from approximately 2.79 million BTC in mid-February down to around 1.35 million BTC by the end of March, nearly halving (a decline of about 51%). Similarly, the “3 Months–6 Months” bucket first rose sharply due to initial panic selling, peaking at 2.95 million BTC mid-March before declining to around 2.83 million BTC by month's end, indicating redistribution as the market stabilized.
Short-term buckets, such as “1 Day–1 Week” and “Under 1 Day,” fluctuated sharply, reflecting heightened volatility and active trading, peaking during significant market events in March, like macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory news.
For institutional traders, market makers, and brokerages, these shifts suggest tightening liquidity in mid-term holdings, as many investors exited or repositioned amid market instability. The growth in very long-term holdings indicates substantial institutional or high-net-worth conviction, potentially limiting circulating supply and amplifying price sensitivity. This data emphasizes the critical importance of understanding UTXO dynamics to anticipate liquidity and price reactions in response to future market catalysts.
From January to April 2025, there was a pronounced shift in Bitcoin liquidity dynamics, marked by a significant rise in liquid balances—Bitcoin holdings more likely to be moved or traded in the near term. Liquid balances surged from roughly 536,000 BTC in early January to approximately 586,753 BTC by mid-April, an increase of nearly 50,000 BTC (around 9%). Highly liquid balances, indicative of holdings readily available on exchanges for immediate trading, also increased notably from about 93,000 BTC in early January to over 88,200 BTC by April, though with a smaller net rise due to mid-period fluctuations.
This rise in liquid and highly liquid BTC coincided directly with Bitcoin’s price correction from all-time highs above $100k down to the $70–85k range, suggesting growing selling pressure and profit-taking behavior. Institutional traders and brokerages would recognize this liquidity shift as evidence of weakening short-term holder confidence, aligning with the broader decline in market sentiment during the period. For market makers, elevated liquid balances indicate increased trading activity, volatility potential, and opportunities arising from heightened buying and selling pressures.
Given the steady illiquid supply (remaining stable near 19.4 million BTC), the market retains a large base of long-term holders reluctant to sell even during volatility. However, the increasing availability of liquid coins highlights a cautious or bearish short-term outlook. Should prices continue declining, especially below mid-2024 support levels, liquidity might further escalate, possibly leading to deeper corrections reminiscent of June–July 2024 lows, prompting institutions to brace for additional market volatility.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the overall unrealized profitability of Bitcoin holders, providing insight into market sentiment—higher values indicate optimism, while lower values reflect caution or fear. Supply in Profit Percentage indicates the proportion of circulating Bitcoin held at a profit compared to purchase prices, directly revealing investor confidence and resilience.
From January to April 2025, amid Bitcoin’s sharp price decline from peaks above $100k down to the $70k–$85k range, NUPL and supply-in-profit percentages reflected weakening investor sentiment. NUPL dropped from 0.602 (86% supply in profit) in late January—indicating strong optimism—to below 0.45 by mid-April (63% supply in profit). This decline highlights that many holders who accumulated during the run-up now find their positions under pressure, leading to rising caution and risk aversion across market participants, especially among retail investors.
The current April levels (NUPL ~0.44–0.48) remain notably above the lows of June-July 2024, when NUPL bottomed below 0.35 with supply-in-profit around 55–60%. However, given current downward momentum, a revisit to these lower levels remains plausible, particularly if macroeconomic conditions or regulatory uncertainties persist. For institutional traders, brokerages, and market makers, such declines imply potentially heightened volatility and increased trading volumes as holders reposition or exit positions.
The risk remains that sentiment could deteriorate further, reaching or surpassing Q3 2023 lows if prices continue falling sharply. Such a scenario would trigger broader selling pressure, possibly causing increased liquidations or forced selling from leveraged retail and institutional holders alike, emphasizing caution and readiness for elevated market turbulence in the short term.
From January to March 2025, Bitcoin network activity, represented by new and active addresses, showed a clear declining trend. The 30-day moving average for new addresses dropped from around 324,000 in mid-January to a low of approximately 310,000 by mid-March, reflecting reduced network participation amid price instability. Similarly, the 30-day moving average of passive addresses (longer-term holders) initially fell from approximately 509,000 in January to around 484,000 in late February. This activity slowdown coincided directly with the market downturn and significant price correction, highlighting caution and decreased transaction volume among traders and institutions during a period of uncertainty.
However, from mid-March into April, a notable recovery emerged. New address activity rebounded sharply, with the moving average climbing back from around 310,000 to over 316,000 by mid-April. Passive addresses followed suit, rising back to nearly 509,000 by early April, indicating renewed confidence and re-engagement of investors amid stabilizing prices. This turnaround coincided with the market finding support after its substantial correction, as prices stabilized within the $70–85k range. The rebound in network activity aligns closely with renewed institutional and retail interest, driven by potential accumulation at lower price points after the crash.
Compared to the robust network activity in Q4 2024, when new addresses peaked consistently above 325,000, early 2025 clearly saw caution-driven retrenchment followed by cautious optimism. The recovery in address activity during late March and April points to improving sentiment and suggests traders, brokerages, and market makers anticipate a potential market bottom, creating opportunities for renewed accumulation and trading strategies. Institutions and traders should watch closely for sustained increases in new and active addresses as a bullish confirmation signal for the next market cycle.
Between January and March 2025, the Bitcoin network saw a notable decline in transaction-related activity, reflected clearly by declining moving averages of new inputs (addresses spending coins) and new outputs (fresh addresses receiving coins). The 30-day moving average of new inputs dropped steadily from approximately 324,000 in mid-January to a low around 311,000 by early March. Similarly, the 30-day moving average for new outputs followed this trend, falling from 339,000 in January to approximately 312,000 in March. This decline mirrored cautious market sentiment and reduced transactional activity in response to the substantial market downturn, as Bitcoin prices pulled back into the $70–85k range, driven by macro uncertainty and profit-taking after previous highs.
However, from mid-to-late March into April, activity began to slightly rebound notably. The 30-day average of new inputs rose from a low near 311,000 in March to around 316,000 by mid-April. New outputs exhibited an even stronger recovery, increasing from 312,000 to about 316,000 during the same period. This slight increase in transactional activity likely indicates a shift in market sentiment, with traders and institutions re-entering positions and engaging actively after prices stabilized. The timing coincides closely with the market regaining some stability following the sharp corrections earlier in Q1, signaling renewed confidence from both retail and institutional traders.
Compared to the more robust transaction activity of Q4 2024—when new outputs frequently averaged above 338,000—early 2025 was significantly more subdued. Nevertheless, the slow rebound in both new inputs and outputs in April suggests the network is beginning to recover. This uptick could be interpreted as an indicator of improving liquidity, trader re-engagement, and potentially increased volatility ahead as participation returns to healthier levels.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) metric signaled a shift in market expectations and sentiment. The S2F ratio measures scarcity by comparing existing Bitcoin supply (stock) to newly mined Bitcoin (flow), historically correlating closely with price movements and investor behavior. Over this period, the S2F ratio rose steadily from approximately 97.57 in late January to over 117.5 by mid-April—an increase of about 20%. This notable rise indicates growing scarcity relative to new supply, which typically underscores bullish sentiment.
However, despite this increase in scarcity, Bitcoin’s price fell sharply from peaks around $104,700 at the end of January to a low of roughly $76,500 by early April. This divergence from S2F expectations suggests significant selling pressure due to external market forces, including regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic instability, and a broader crypto-market correction. The moving average (MA50) trend highlights this downward momentum clearly, declining steadily from nearly $99,300 in early February to below $85,400 by mid-April.
For institutional traders, brokerages, and market makers, this divergence presents both a warning and an opportunity. While long-term scarcity and a rising S2F ratio typically suggest bullish pressure, market dynamics during Q1 2025 underscored the need to interpret S2F in context with real-time events, such as heightened regulatory scrutiny or macroeconomic shocks that can drive price volatility. Moving forward, the steadily rising S2F remains a critical long-term bullish indicator, implying potential for significant upward price pressure once external market conditions stabilize.
From January through April 2025, Bitcoin's Yardstick indicator—a measure assessing Bitcoin's price relative to its historical average price—experienced significant fluctuations, reflecting market volatility and shifting investor sentiment. Initially, the Yardstick peaked notably around 3.06 on January 31, coinciding with Bitcoin’s high price. This high value indicated that Bitcoin was significantly above its long-term average valuation, signaling potential overheating and caution for traders and institutions alike.
However, by February, the Yardstick sharply declined, ranging between 0.44 and 2.48, mirroring the substantial drop in Bitcoin's price from over $100,000 to the mid-$90,000s, and subsequently to the lower $80,000s and upper $70,000s in March and April. Notably, the Yardstick even turned negative by early April (as low as -0.58 on April 4), indicating that Bitcoin had become undervalued relative to historical averages, marking a reversal in market sentiment toward extreme bearishness.
For institutional traders, retail traders, and market-making entities, this volatility in the Yardstick highlights critical trading opportunities and risks. The extreme high at the end of January signaled potential profit-taking and risk management opportunities, while the negative Yardstick values in early April suggested potentially attractive entry points following the price correction to the $70,000–$85,000 range. Moving forward, investors should closely monitor Yardstick values, as a return toward historical norms could indicate stabilization and recovery, whereas prolonged negative readings may point to sustained bearish sentiment influenced by broader market conditions or regulatory factors.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin's Puell Multiple demonstrated notable volatility, reflecting changing miner profitability relative to historical trends. The Puell Multiple compares daily coin issuance (in USD terms) to its 365-day moving average, helping institutional traders, market makers, and brokerages gauge mining economics and potential market tops or bottoms. Values significantly above 1 suggest miners are highly profitable and incentivized to sell, potentially signaling a market peak; below 1 may indicate undervaluation or miner stress.
Early in this period (late February), the Puell Multiple rose to 1.10–1.21, coinciding with high price levels around $95,000–$98,000. However, the subsequent sharp Bitcoin price drop to the $70,000–$85,000 range lowered the multiple notably, with readings dipping consistently below or around 1.0 through March, such as 0.86 on March 11 and 0.85 on April 9. These figures highlight reduced miner profitability, likely forcing less capitalized miners to sell reserves to cover costs, contributing to downward price pressure during this period.
Comparing Q4 2024 to early 2025, the Puell Multiple's sustained fluctuation between 0.85 and 1.25 signals heightened uncertainty in miner sentiment and profitability, potentially affecting miner-led selling pressures. Institutional and retail traders should closely monitor periods when the Puell Multiple consistently exceeds 1.2, indicating increased selling incentives for miners, and conversely, levels below 0.9, suggesting accumulation phases or market stabilization opportunities post-correction. The observed drop aligns closely with recent market corrections, underlining the tool's relevance for timely market insights.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin's Reserve Risk Ratio demonstrated a clear downward trend, highlighting growing confidence among long-term holders despite recent price volatility. The Reserve Risk Ratio is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin price by the "HODL Bank," a measure representing cumulative unspent holding duration (or "coin-days") for all Bitcoin holders. Coin-days measure how long coins remain unspent; each day a Bitcoin remains idle, it accrues one coin-day. When coins are spent (sold), these accumulated coin-days are "destroyed." A rising HODL Bank indicates holders' increasing reluctance to sell, signaling strong market conviction.
In late February, the Reserve Risk Ratio averaged around 0.00132, reflecting relative equilibrium. However, after the sharp correction that saw prices tumble from $98,000 down into the $70,000-$85,000 range by early March, the ratio declined consistently, reaching 0.00108 by late March and early April, illustrating reduced selling pressure among holders despite lower prices. This trend indicates strong holder conviction that the downturn may be temporary or an opportunity to accumulate, particularly after Bitcoin’s recent volatility triggered by macroeconomic uncertainties and institutional positioning.
For institutional traders, brokerages, and market makers, this downward trend signals reduced risk of holder-led selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for price stabilization or recovery. Retail investors observing this ratio’s decline may interpret the present as a period of accumulation or relatively low-risk entry points. Closely monitoring Reserve Risk in conjunction with news events—such as regulatory developments or institutional adoption—can provide further clarity on long-term holder sentiment and future price direction.
From January to April 2025, Bitcoin’s Market Cap versus Realized Cap (MVRV) experienced notable fluctuations, reflecting significant shifts in market sentiment and valuation relative to historical cost basis. The Market Cap represents the current market valuation of Bitcoin, whereas Realized Cap tracks the aggregate value of all coins at their last transacted price. MVRV, their ratio, indicates market profitability—higher values suggest the market may be overvalued, while lower values point toward undervaluation.
At the start of this period, Bitcoin's market cap peaked around $1.95 trillion on February 21, with an MVRV of 2.27, signaling that Bitcoin’s price was significantly above the average acquisition cost, indicating overheated market conditions. However, the ensuing sharp correction in prices—Bitcoin's drop into the $70,000–$85,000 range—pulled market cap down sharply, hitting lows near $1.52 trillion by April 9, reducing MVRV to 1.75. This decline shows a substantial reduction in market exuberance, aligning with events such as heightened regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by institutions.
Comparing this period with Q4 2024, MVRV fell notably from previously higher levels, suggesting increased caution among institutional investors, traders, and market makers. The decline implies potential value opportunities, as the market moved closer to its realized cap—historically a more stable valuation reference point. Institutions and brokerages should view lower MVRV values as indicators of potentially favorable entry points, while retail traders could interpret rising MVRV values above 2.0 as signals for profit-taking or risk management actions.
Between January and April 2025, Miner Capitulation Index and Miner Supply Spent ratio highlighted critical shifts in Bitcoin miners' behavior, signaling varying degrees of selling pressure and confidence in the market.
The Miner Capitulation Index measures the extent to which Bitcoin miners are selling their holdings relative to historical averages, with a higher reading indicating increased selling pressure. Specifically, the index is calculated as the ratio between current miner outflows (coins sent from miner wallets to exchanges) and the historical average miner outflows over a defined baseline period. Notably, the Miner Capitulation Index rose significantly from a moderate average of approximately 0.76 in late February to elevated peaks ranging between 1.3 and 1.56 from late March to early April. This sharp rise aligns closely with Bitcoin’s price drop from around $98,000 down to the $78,000–$85,000 range. The surge in the index indicates that miners, faced with tightening profit margins and higher operational pressures, increased their selling activity to cover costs and sustain profitability.
Complementing this, the Miner Supply Spent ratio, indicating how much of miners' earned Bitcoin is being sold versus held, dropped noticeably from levels consistently above 1.05 in late February (indicating net selling of accumulated BTC), to below 0.67 during late March—this dramatic drop coincided with extreme outflow spikes, peaking at around 798 BTC/day on March 25. Such a combination implies miners rapidly liquidated older inventory in response to market distress, possibly influenced by broader economic uncertainty or regulatory fears.
For institutional traders, brokerages, and market makers, these metrics are critical indicators. Elevated Miner Capitulation readings combined with sharp spikes in miner outflows indicate market stress, typically suggesting short-term bearishness. However, as the Miner Supply Spent recovers post-capitulation, it signals miners regaining confidence and stabilizing market conditions, potentially marking opportunities for strategic re-entry and accumulation for informed investors.
Between January and April 2025, Miner Outflows and the Miner Position Index (MPI) highlighted significant changes in Bitcoin miners' selling behaviors, reflecting shifting sentiment and market conditions.
Miner Outflows, representing the daily volume of Bitcoin leaving miners' wallets, dramatically increased, especially from late March to early April. Average daily outflows rose notably from roughly 430 BTC/day in late February to peaks reaching nearly 800 BTC/day on March 25 and again on April 3. These sharp spikes occurred amid Bitcoin’s price correction, dropping from around $98,000 to below $85,000, indicating miners rushed to offload holdings to manage risk and secure profitability.
Complementing this, the Miner Position Index, measuring miner selling intensity relative to historical averages, also surged. Typically, MPI values above 2 signal significant selling pressure. MPI rose sharply from moderate levels near 0.25 in February to an extraordinary peak of 3.29 on March 25, underscoring extreme selling intensity. The sustained high MPI through early April confirms miners' intent to liquidate reserves aggressively during price declines.
Elevated miner outflows combined with a high MPI signal heightened short-term selling pressure, increasing downside risk. However, once these indicators stabilize and decrease, it could indicate selling exhaustion and present favorable accumulation opportunities. Monitoring these metrics closely can enhance market timing decisions, especially during periods of heightened volatility and market stress.
Between January and April 2025, Bitcoin’s issuance rate demonstrated stability, reflecting the predictable nature of its block reward schedule post-halving. Bitcoin issuance represents the number of new bitcoins mined daily as block rewards, an essential metric since it directly affects supply dynamics and miner profitability. Following the 2024 halving event, Bitcoin’s daily issuance settled consistently around 450–470 BTC/day, exhibiting minor fluctuations due to natural variations in block mining intervals rather than substantial structural changes.
From late February through early April, issuance remained notably stable, averaging about 470 BTC/day in early April from around 457 BTC/day in late February. This stability is typical post-halving, as block rewards are programmatically cut in half every four years, directly influencing the predictable scarcity narrative of Bitcoin. For institutional and retail traders alike, stable issuance confirms the anticipated supply constraints that underpin Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven valuation models.
This issuance consistency holds significant market implications. Despite Bitcoin’s price correction from approximately $98,000 in February to $78,000–$85,000 by early April, the unchanged issuance highlights miners' ongoing commitment and confidence in the network. The stable issuance also ensures predictable inflation rates, underpinning Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a hedge against traditional inflationary assets. Investors, especially market makers and brokerages, should interpret the steady issuance post-halving as reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity value, supporting accumulation strategies during periods of price volatility and corrections.
In conclusion, the first quarter of 2025 was characterized by significant volatility across the cryptocurrency markets, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, regulatory developments, and notable security incidents. Bitcoin experienced dramatic swings, reaching a historic peak near $109,000 before correcting sharply below $90,000, highlighting the critical role of on-chain analytics in navigating such volatility. Institutional adoption remained resilient, as evidenced by MicroStrategy’s substantial increase in BTC holdings and mixed ETF flows, illustrating investor sensitivity to macroeconomic events and security breaches such as the significant Bybit hack.
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