Skip to content
Request a Demo

USA Week Ahead:

  1. Tuesday 8:30am - CPI

  2. Thursday 8:30am - PPI

  3. Friday 8:30am - Empire State Manufacturing

Disclaimer: Nothing here is trading advice or solicitation. This is for educational purposes only.

Authors have holdings in BTC, ETH, and Lyra and may change their holdings anytime.

Deribit Crypto Options exchange

Macro Recap

The Labor Department said the economy added 275,000 jobs in February, well above the 198,000 that economists were expecting.


nonfarm payrools change from a month earlier labor department seasonally adjusted on WSJ

Unemployment ticked higher to 3.9% and wage growth slowed, despite a blockbuster hiring number.

The combined effects of slowing wage growth, higher than expected unemployment headline number but strong payrolls brings the economy closer to a “soft-landing”, a best-case scenario outcome. 

Gold moved higher last week, making new ATHs, while interest rates held mostly steady week-on-week. 


Interest rate march 2024


Next week we have two big inflation numbers CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday.

BTC bitcoin ETH ethereum SOL solana

BTC: $68,678 (+9.7% / 7-day)

ETH :$3,873 (+11.1% / 7-day)

SOL :$143.41 (+9.5% / 7-day)

Bitcoin prices tested the all-time highs last week and now prices are currently finding a direction.


From a short-term trading perspective, this puts us in the no-man’s land of trade ideas. I can see two really good arguments for prices going either up or down. 

  1. DOWN: Prices have gone up SUBSTANTIALLY YTD on the back of an already insane 2023 bull rally. There’s naturally going to be profit taking and ATHs are a natural “trading” zone. False breakouts are a great way to trap leveraged longs.
  2. UP: You don’t sell ATHs and this is just another pit-stop along the way to $100k+. 

From a Delta bias perspective holding long delta bags (longterm positions) makes the most sense. 

From a short-term perspective, sit and watch. Look at the delta-neutral strategies instead. 

Chart: 90-DTE Basis (March 2023 - Present)

AD Derivatives 90-DTE Basis (March 2023 - Present) Constant API and Basis

Looking at the current Bitcoin basis, we see substantial opportunity worth exploring. 

  1. Selling the +25% annualized basis is an interesting trade on its own. This is naturally a short-delta position but it’s a “forgiving short”. Even if BTC blasts to new ATHs, traders can afford to hold the short-basis with little pain. At worst, a trader can wait 90-days to merely capture the spread. 
  2. Should prices breakdown lower, we’d expect substantial basis compression as leverage gets liquidated out of the system. Enabling traders to capture the spread quickly and earn profits as Bitcoin finally provides a “buy-the-dip” opportunity. 

Basis on option prices!

A very interesting element of the crypto landscape is the positive correlation between basis and spot prices. Traditionally, in equities, when markets crash, people buy treasuries and risk-free rates compress… but this effect is small and barely worthwhile. 

In crypto, however, a +25% basis can completely flatten to zero on a market crash (think May 2021). This provides extra juice to long-dated options. 

Call are extra expensive today due to the large annualized basis, while puts are extra cheap. 

Then combine the current option RR-Skew and you get a substantial opportunity for delta-neutral risk-reversal trades.

Chart: 90-DTE Bitcoin ∆25 C-P / ATM IV (March 2023 - Present)

AD Derivatives 90-DTE Bitcoin ∆25 C-P / ATM IV (March 2023 - Present) Skew normalized by ATM IV constant maturity

This opportunity can also extend to positive delta structures, such as “Collars”, enabling cheap bag-protection. 

Ultimately, the market is in a real 2-way zone right now w.r.t. delta direction in the short-term and medium-term timeframes. 

Everyone is positioned for the ATH breakout but the cost of the leveraged long trade is absolutely expensive.

Today, pricing for ∆short and ∆neutral structures are VERY enticing and there’s a lot of bulls right now that could EASILY get trapped here!

Paradigm Crypto institutional derivatives

Paradigm's Week In Review

BTC +8.66% / ETH +12.46% / NDX -1.35%

Paradigm's Week In Review tradingview Bitcoin US dollar binance

Paradigm Top Trades this Week 👇

Amberdata derivatives paradigm top 5 BTC structures and top 5 ETH structures / strategy

Weekly BTC Cumulative Taker Flow 🌊

Amberdata derivatives API Paradigm Weekly BTC Cumulative Taker Flow

Weekly ETH Cumulative Taker Flow 🌊

Amberdata derivatives API Paradigm Weekly ETH Cumulative Taker Flow

BTC Cumulative OI 

Amberdata derivatives API Paradigm BTC Taker Cumulative OI

ETH Cumulative OI

Amberdata derivatives API Paradigm ETH Taker Cumulative OI

As always you can hit us up from the below 

Hit us up on Telegram! 🙏

Paradigm Edge: Daily Commentary✍️

24/7 Support:

Sign up now! 👉


Amberdata derivatives Paradigm Block volume traded and puts vs calls volume BTC


Amberdata derivatives Paradigm Block volume traded and puts vs calls volume ETH

The Squeethcosystem Report

Crypto markets remain strong week. ETH ended the week +11.72% and oSQTH ended the week +23.11%.

Amberdata derivatives Opyn oSqueeth vs ETH oSQTH


oSQTH IV continues to climb, trading over +135 and closed near highs to end the week.

Amberdata derivatives opyn historical implied volatility oSQTH IV squeeth

Crab Strategy

Crab saw declines ending the week -0.69% in USDC terms.

Opyn crab strategies historical returns annualized



AMBERDATA DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this research is for educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. None of the information in this report constitutes, or should be relied on as a suggestion, offer, or other solicitation to engage in, or refrain from engaging, in any purchase, sale, or any other investment-related activity. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature. Don't invest more than what you can afford to lose.

New call-to-action

Amberdata Blog

View All Posts