Crypto Options Analytics, Jan 28th, 2024: Bitcoin ETF Flows, GBTC Dynamics, and Market Trends

USA Week Ahead:

1. Tuesday 9:00am ET - S&P Case Shiller Index

2. Wednesday 8:15am- ADP Employment

3. Wednesday 2pm - Fed Interest Rate Decision + Press Conf.

4. Thursday 10a - ISM Manufactring

5. Friday 8:30am - NFP Employment Report

Disclaimer: Nothing here is trading advice or solicitation. This is for educational purposes only.

Authors have holdings in BTC, ETH, and Lyra and may change their holdings anytime.

CRYPTO OPTIONS MACRO THEMES:

BTC: $41,936 (+1% / 7-day)

ETH :$2,253 (-8.1% / 7-day)

One of the big stories everyone is following the is the Bitcoin ETF flows. 

Although the newly listed ETF’s overcame the GBTC outflows early on, we’ve now flipped into net negative outflows as GBTC continues to bleed. 

Let’s remember that in prior years GBTC once traded at a premium over spot prices, this caused many firms (like 3AC via Genesis Trading) to borrow BTC → send it to GBTC → and hope to sell their GBTC shares at a premium over spot prices. 

Chart: (ETF Inflows/Outflows in Bitcoin Terms)

As 3AC, FTX and other firms went bankrupt there’s been an overhang of GBTC up for liquidation. It’s rumored that FTX itself has sold about $1B of GBTC shares since the ETF conversion. 

Bitcoin prices are feeling the heat, but this doesn’t seem like a very dire pullback given that spot BTC prices were trading around $28k 90-days ago. 

Chart: (BTC RR-Skew normalized by ATM IV) 

The options market saw a bottoming out in the BTC RR-Skew. Indicative of a slow down in downside volatility from a spot/vol perspective. 

Currently, short-term RR-Skew has managed to climb back near parity. 

Chart: (BTC & ETH June Expirations Futures Basis) 

Basis remains elevated compared levels before the Q4 spot rally. 

Selling covered calls (or other call structures) remains interesting as volatility likely continues to lower and basis follows. 

In the medium to long-term I suspect institutional money comes into the system to sell both volatility and the basis. 

ETH prices took a beating this week as cold water was thrown on ETH spot ETF hopes. 

The ETH/BTC ratio headed lower W/W. 

Chart: (ETH RR-Skew normalized by ATM IV) 

We can see that ETH RR-Skew hit YTD lows last week, despite BTC RR-Skew climbing higher at the same time. 

A big part of this story is the return of the ETH covered call over-writer. 

This has sent dealer gamma inventories screaming higher as dealers become saddled with ETH paper once again, a trend seen in 2023.

Chart: (ETH Gamma Time Series) 

Chart: (ETH Gamma Exposure by Strikes)

Chart: (Top “on-screen” Trades in ETH last week)

ETH RR-Skew has been hammered lower for two clear reasons: 1) Not only did the spot price breakdown create demand for ETH puts but 2) ETH calls are once again being sold in large size on Deribit Screens. 

Paradigm's Week In Review

BTC -0.8% / ETH -8.3% / NDX +0.2%

Paradigm Top Trades this Week 👇

Weekly BTC Cumulative Taker Flow 🌊

Weekly ETH Cumulative Taker Flow 🌊

BTC Cumulative OI 

ETH Cumulative OI

TBP | BTC ETF is a Gamechanger for Crypto Options w/ Joshua Lim from Arbelos - Ep. 45

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BTC

ETH

The Squeethcosystem Report

Crypto markets had a relatively quiet week. ETH ended the week -8.30%, oSQTH ended the week -17.37%.

Volatility

oSQTH remained active this week, trading in the 90s to end the week sub 75.

Volume

The 7-day total volume for oSQTH via Uniswap oSQTH/ETH pool was $198.45k

January 22nd saw the most volume, with a daily total of $65.11k  traded.

Crab Strategy

Crab saw large gains throughout the week ending at -0.46% in USDC terms.

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AMBERDATA DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this research is for educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. None of the information in this report constitutes, or should be relied on as a suggestion, offer, or other solicitation to engage in, or refrain from engaging, in any purchase, sale, or any other investment-related activity. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature. Don't invest more than what you can afford to lose.