Share this blog:
The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% with the highest dissent since 1992, the 10-year sits at 4.44%, and Strait of Hormuz re-escalation is pushing oil higher. Q1 GDP missed and April payrolls are projected at 60K against 178K in March, the slowdown landing in growth and labor before services and shipping. Inside crypto, the BTC short squeeze fully delivered with $181M in liquidations, but mechanical position closure is not a regime change.
Percentile rankings: 90-day rolling window. Green = health, red = stress, amber = neutral, monitor closely. Values and changes ranked over 90 days; deeper colour signals proximity to recent highs or lows. Correlations: rolling Pearson on daily log returns of close.
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
Executive Summary
1. Market
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
BTC closes at $79,811 in the 99th 90-day percentile, while ETH at $2,320.70 sits at the 88th, the leg up since the squeeze concentrated in BTC. Realized vol crushed: BTC 7D printed 20.2% (2nd percentile) against 30D at 40.2%, RV ratio 0.50x. Spot volume stays thin at the 10th percentile for BTC and 4th for ETH. BTC/ETH 30-day correlation broke down to 0.17x from 0.73x last week.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
2. Liquidity
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
Spreads widened sharply: BTC at 0.3bps moved to the 89th 90-day percentile from a 7th-percentile read last week, ETH at 1.4bps jumped to the 96th. 50bp depth at $936.94M for BTC and $1.13B for ETH held in the 90-day high zone, the squeeze did not break depth. Bid imbalance moderated to 53.3% on BTC and 56.8% on ETH, buying tilt persists but the extreme reading unwound.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
3. Rates
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
BTC funding extends to a 26-session negative streak at -5.5% APR, shorts paying through the squeeze rather than capitulating in funding. ETH moderated to +0.5% from +5.5%, SOL flipped to -0.1%, the cross-cohort picture flattening. Altcoin funding ran hot: UNI at +10.4% in the 100th percentile, BNB +7.4%, AAVE +7.0%. Aggregate market funding at +2.7% (70th percentile) up from +1.5%, weighted by altcoin extremes.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
4. Positioning
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
BTC liquidations totaled $180.68M for the day with short-side $126.19M against longs at $54.49M, ETH posted $118.75M with shorts of $75.61M. BTC long/short ratio dropped further to 0.81x in the 2nd 90-day percentile, more net short despite a 99th-percentile spot price. Open interest extended to fresh highs: $29.20B for BTC (96th) and $16.51B for ETH (90th), system leverage built rather than unwound.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
5. ETF Flows
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
BTC spot ETF inflow streak extended to 7 consecutive sessions, AUM at $114.0B in the 90-day high zone, holdings at 7.1% of supply. ETH ETF streak reached 10 sessions, a reversal from the prior week’s 7-day net outflow of $242.9M. AUM holds at $4.3B against 1.5% of supply. Both products print positive streaks in tandem, the first such alignment since the squeeze began, institutional demand sustained on both.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
6. Stablecoin
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
Stablecoin liquidity flipped from contraction to expansion. USDT minted $2.0B over the week with mint/burn at 15.20x (99th percentile) and dominance at 68.4%, a fresh 90-day high. USDe rebounded to a $156M net mint from $1.8B redeemed prior. USDS minted $370.7M, PYUSD added $11.6M, USDC was roughly flat at -$39.6M. Aggregate ecosystem capital expanded around $2.5B, fresh capital entering rather than internal rotation between coins.
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
7. DeFi Lending
|
KEY TAKEAWAYS |
|
Aggregate DeFi TVL fell to $29.65B in the 2nd 90-day percentile, down from $30.16B prior. aavev3 dominates at $22.38B with utilization rising to 44.1% (90-day high zone) and borrow APR moderating to 3.0% from 5.5%. compoundv3 borrow APR cooled to 194% from 722%. Liquidations rose to $3.20M aggregate from $1.25M prior, concentrated on aavev3. ETH base staking APY at 2.8% (69th percentile).
CHARTS
DETAIL TABLES
Full-Market Research. Institutional Depth. Derivatives, ETFs, on-chain, DEXs, microstructure, risk signals - and more. Subscribe at the bottom of our page for research that covers every corner of crypto and visit Amberdata Research.
Access Amberdata Intelligence for institutional-grade digital asset intelligence, or contact our team to discuss custom solutions.
Links & Resources
Platform
Recommended next reads
ETF Cost Basis Series
- Part 1/3: The $80,000 Floor (ETF Cost Basis)
- Part 2/3: Who Breaks First (ETF Cost Basis)
- Part 3/3: The Stress Test (ETF Cost Basis)
More key reads
- Anatomy of a Short Squeeze: Funding, Liquidations and the Cover Trade
- Decoupling Watch: When BTC and ETH Stop Moving Together
- Stablecoin Liquidity as a Leading Indicator
Disclaimers
The information contained in this report is provided by Amberdata solely for educational and informational purposes. The contents of this report should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other form of professional advice. Amberdata does not provide personalized recommendations; any opinions or suggestions expressed in this report are for general informational purposes only.
Although Amberdata has made every effort to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it cannot be held responsible for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, or outdated information. Market conditions, regulations, and laws are subject to change, and readers should perform their own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions or taking any actions based on the information provided in this report.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any investments discussed or mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all individuals or circumstances. Investing involves risks, and the value of investments can go up or down. Amberdata disclaims any liability for any loss or damage that may arise from the use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this report.
By accessing and using the information provided in this report, you agree to indemnify and hold harmless Amberdata, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors, employees, and agents from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, damages, or expenses (including reasonable attorney’s fees) arising from your use of or reliance on the information contained herein.
Copyright © 2026 Amberdata. All rights reserved.