The Perfect Storm: Why Bitcoin Crashed Below $100K

Bitcoin has broken below $100K for the first time since June, ending a 20% slide from its all-time high. Tech-sector weakness, AI bubble fears, and sharp ETF outflows are driving risk-off sentiment. With support near $95K, markets are watching whether institutional flows return.

The $26,000 Question

Bitcoin crashed below $100,000 on November 4, 2025, for the first time since June, completing a brutal 20% decline from its October all-time high of $126,210. The collapse reflects a toxic convergence of AI bubble fears, tech sector weakness, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and shifting institutional sentiment—exposing Bitcoin's uncomfortable reality as a leveraged bet on risk-on markets rather than the digital safe haven many hoped it would become.

This isn't just another crypto correction. Bitcoin held above $100,000 for 180 consecutive days before breaking down, and the speed of the decline—coupled with $1.2 billion in liquidations and extreme fear readings—suggests a fundamental shift in market structure. The simultaneous tech selloff that wiped $500 billion from semiconductor stocks and Michael Burry's massive bearish bets against AI stocks reveal that Bitcoin's fate remains inextricably tied to speculative technology assets.

Just four weeks ago, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their best week ever with $3.2 billion in inflows. Now those same funds are hemorrhaging capital, with $1.3 billion in outflows over four consecutive days. Something broke in the market's confidence—and it started with concerns about an AI bubble.

The Numbers Don't Lie: Bitcoin's Technical Breakdown

Bitcoin's current position is technically precarious across every major metric. As of November 4, 2025, BTC trades at $101,146, having lost 18% from its peak in just 30 days. More concerning than the magnitude is the velocity—Bitcoin broke through the psychologically critical $100,000 level that had held firm since late June.

The moving averages paint an unambiguous bearish picture. Bitcoin now trades 10.8% below its 50-day moving average ($113,451) and 8.0% below its 200-day moving average ($109,958)—a technical configuration that typically signals sustained downtrends. This "death cross" setup, where price trades below both major moving averages, hasn't been seen since the April correction when Bitcoin briefly dipped to $75,000.

Support and resistance levels tell the immediate story. The $100,000 level, once viewed as a psychological floor after months of consolidation, failed decisively on November 4. Analysts now identify $95,000 as the next major support zone (JPMorgan's downside target), with the critical $93,400 ascending trendline representing a make-or-break level that has been in place since late 2023. On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $110,000-$113,000 to restore bullish momentum—a level that now sits more than 10% above current prices.

The sentiment indicators reflect capitulation. The Fear & Greed Index crashed to 21 (Extreme Fear), matching the lowest reading since early April. This represents a dramatic reversal from the greed that characterized early October's all-time highs.

Volume dynamics reveal the nature of this decline. Trading volume surged as prices broke down, indicating genuine selling rather than low-liquidity volatility. The institutional exodus accelerated alongside retail panic, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing major outflows as institutional appetite cooled dramatically from their early October peak.

More telling is the futures market liquidation cascade: over $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated during the November 3-4 selloff, with total open interest dropping by more than $10 billion since the October peak. This deleveraging event mirrors the historic October 10 crash that saw $3.21 billion vanish in 60 seconds and $19.4 billion in total liquidations—the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.

The technical verdict: Bitcoin faces strong resistance at every level above $106,000, with both moving averages acting as formidable barriers. Without a catalyst to reverse sentiment, the path of least resistance points toward the $95,000-$98,000 support zone.

No Safe Harbor: The Multi-Asset Selloff

Bitcoin didn't fall alone—the entire crypto complex collapsed in unison, with altcoins suffering even more dramatic drawdowns. Over the past 30 days, the carnage has been comprehensive:

• Bitcoin: Down 18% ($123,609 → $101,226)
• Ethereum: Down 27% ($4,514 → $3,276)
• Solana: Down 32%
• XRP: Down 26%
• Dogecoin: Down 36%

This coordinated selloff tells a critical story: when risk appetite evaporates, there's no differentiation between "quality" crypto assets and speculative tokens. Everything moves together, driven by the same institutional flows and leveraged positioning that amplify moves in both directions.

The altcoin underperformance is particularly noteworthy. While Bitcoin fell 18%, altcoins lost an additional 8-18%, suggesting a flight to "quality" within crypto even as the entire sector declined. This pattern typically characterizes the early stages of bear markets, when investors first rotate from smaller coins to Bitcoin, then eventually exit crypto entirely.

When Tech Sneezes, Bitcoin Catches Pneumonia

The proximate trigger for Bitcoin's weakness came from Silicon Valley. On November 4, 2025, the Nasdaq plunged 2.04%, and the semiconductor sector lost approximately $500 billion as investors finally blinked at stretched AI valuations.

This exposed an uncomfortable asymmetry: Bitcoin no longer rises with tech rallies, yet it still crashes alongside tech selloffs. The Magnificent Seven led the decline. Nvidia fell 3-4%, shedding $200 billion. Microsoft dropped 3-4% after reporting capital expenditures would surge 60% in fiscal 2026. Meta crashed 11-13% after disclosing AI spending would exceed $100 billion in 2026 with no clear revenue path.

The correlation exists for structural reasons: 59% of institutional investors seek 5%+ crypto allocations; investors hold both asset classes; Bitcoin's 3-5x higher volatility makes it a "beta extension"; and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $61 billion, creating a shared investor base with tech funds. Bitcoin trades with a 0.44 correlation to Nasdaq normally, but a near-perfect correlation during risk-off events.

The AI Bubble Nobody Wants to Pop

By early November, 54% of fund managers believed AI stocks were in bubble territory. Palantir trades at 700x P/E—yet crashed 8-9% after beating Q3 estimates. Big Tech spent $80 billion on AI in Q3 alone (85% YoY increase), with 2026 expenditures projected to consume 94% of operating cash flow.

The economics don't work. OpenAI lost $13.5 billion on $4.3 billion revenue in H1 2025—spending $2.25 per dollar earned. The industry needs $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify spending. The world is $800 billion short.

The turning point: Michael Burry disclosed $187.6 million in Nvidia puts and $912 million against Palantir on November 4. The Bank of England warned valuations are "most stretched since the dotcom bubble."

When AI fears intensified, Bitcoin fell from $105,000 to below $100,000 in 24 hours. The harsh reality: Bitcoin has evolved into a high-beta tech proxy, offering downside exposure without safe-haven benefits.

Follow the Money: The ETF Exodus

The most dramatic reversal in Bitcoin's recent decline isn't visible on price charts—it's in the institutional flows. The same spot Bitcoin ETFs that absorbed $3.24 billion during the first week of October suddenly became sources of relentless selling pressure.

The swing is historic. On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.21 billion in net inflows, the largest single day of 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $970 million. That week marked the second-best performance since ETF inception, pushing cumulative net inflows above $61 billion.

Then the tide turned with shocking speed. By October 20, Bitcoin ETFs experienced their first significant outflows at $40.47 million. On October 30, outflows accelerated to $470.7 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC ($164 million), ARK's ARKB ($143.8 million), and BlackRock's IBIT ($88 million). On November 4, as Bitcoin broke below $100,000, ETFs recorded $578 million in net outflows—the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Over just four consecutive days in early November, Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged $1.3 billion in cumulative outflows. For context, this represents more than a third of October's entire month of inflows ($3.425 billion net). While total cumulative inflows since inception remain positive at $61.87 billion, the reversal in momentum is undeniable.

The message from ETF flows is clear: institutional investors are reducing risk exposure across the board. The same rotation pulling capital from high-valuation tech stocks is hitting Bitcoin with equal force. This isn't retail panic—this is sophisticated institutional capital managers rebalancing portfolios in response to stretched valuations, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and deteriorating technical conditions.

The ETF flows explain Bitcoin's price action. During early October, when inflows exceeded $3 billion per week, Bitcoin surged to new highs above $126,000. As flows turned negative, prices declined in near-perfect lockstep. This sensitivity to flows is a double-edged sword: ETFs provide deep liquidity and institutional access, but they also create new transmission mechanisms for risk-off sentiment.

The Fed Pivot That Wasn't

Bitcoin's breakdown unfolded against tightening financial conditions and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. The pivot began on October 29-30, when the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut but Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message that shocked markets. Powell signaled that a December rate cut "isn't guaranteed," noting a "growing chorus" suggesting the Fed should "wait a cycle."

The market impact was immediate. Prior to the meeting, Polymarket showed 98% odds of a December cut. After Powell's comments, those odds plummeted to 68%—a stunning reversal that drained liquidity from risk assets. This matters for Bitcoin because the digital asset thrives in loose monetary conditions. When the Fed is cutting rates and expanding liquidity, cryptocurrencies tend to rally as investors reach for higher returns.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rising above 100 for the first time since August 1 compounded Bitcoin's problems. A stronger dollar typically pressures all risk assets, particularly those like Bitcoin that lack cash flows or dividends. When the dollar rallies on Fed hawkishness and safe-haven flows, investors rotate away from speculative bets.

The irony is that Bitcoin was supposed to benefit from concerns about fiat currency devaluation. Yet when the Fed pauses its cutting cycle and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin sells off rather than rallying as a monetary hedge. This behavior reveals that Bitcoin trades more like a speculative growth asset than a safe haven or inflation hedge.

What the Futures Curve Reveals

For readers less familiar with derivatives markets, futures curves offer a sophisticated window into market sentiment. In simple terms, a futures curve plots the prices of futures contracts across different expiration dates, revealing whether traders expect higher or lower prices in the future.

Looking at the current data tells a concerning story about sentiment:

Bitcoin's Forward Curve (as of November 4):

• 7-day APR: 3.63%
• 30-day APR: 4.18%
• 90-day APR: 4.48%
• 180-day APR: 5.28%
• Curve shape: Extremely flat (+0.30 percentage points from 7D to 180D)

Ethereum's Forward Curve:

• 7-day APR: 3.32%
• 30-day APR: 2.32%
• 90-day APR: 3.21%
• 180-day APR: 3.69%
• Curve shape: Flat (+0.89 percentage points)

Solana's Forward Curve:

• 7-day APR: 5.69%
• 30-day APR: 6.63%
• 90-day APR: 2.15%
• Curve shape: Downward sloping (-4.48 percentage points) – a bearish backwardation signal

These curves tell a stark story. Throughout most of Bitcoin's 2024-2025 rally, futures curves maintained healthy contango, with 3-month and 6-month contracts trading at premiums of 5-15% above spot prices. This reflected optimistic expectations: traders believed Bitcoin would continue rising, making it worthwhile to pay premiums for future exposure.

But now the curve has flattened dramatically. The near-zero premium between 7-day and 180-day Bitcoin futures (just 1.65 percentage points spread across six months) signals evaporated confidence. Traders are no longer willing to pay substantial premiums for future delivery because conviction in continued price appreciation has eroded.

The futures curve matters because it influences capital flows. When contango is steep, arbitrage traders can execute profitable "cash-and-carry" trades: buy spot Bitcoin, sell futures contracts, and capture the premium. These trades create buying pressure in the spot market. When contango flattens, these arbitrage opportunities disappear, removing a source of steady buying pressure.

Even more concerning is Solana's inverted curve—near-term contracts trading at higher prices than future contracts. This backwardation typically signals acute near-term selling pressure or bearish sentiment. The market is saying: "We need higher prices NOW to justify holding, but we expect lower prices in the future."

The $1.2 billion in liquidations during November 3-4 occurred as these futures curves were rapidly flattening, forcing out overleveraged positions that had built up during the contango rally. Open interest has declined by over $10 billion since October's peak, indicating wholesale deleveraging.

What the Chain Reveals: On-Chain Data Shows No Panic

While price charts paint a bearish picture, on-chain data reveals nuance that headlines miss. The behavior of different holder cohorts tells a more complex story about Bitcoin's current position.

The MVRV Story: Undervalued Territory

As of November 4, Bitcoin's on-chain metrics show:

• Market Cap: $2,017 billion
• Realized Cap: $1,183 billion (the aggregate cost basis of all holders)
• MVRV Ratio: 1.7048 (Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap)
• MVRV Z-Score: -2.1015 (more than 2 standard deviations below mean)

This is remarkable. The MVRV Z-Score of -2.1015 puts Bitcoin in officially "undervalued" territory—a zone that has appeared on only 1 day (0.1% of days) since 2024 began. Historically, readings below -2.0 have marked major buying opportunities, as they indicate price has fallen significantly below the aggregate cost basis while accounting for market cycles.

To put this in context: Bitcoin crashed 20% from all-time highs, yet most holders accumulated at far lower prices and remain comfortably in profit. The realized price (aggregate cost basis) sits around $110,000-$111,600, meaning even holders who bought near recent peaks are only marginally underwater. This explains why there's been no capitulation—holders are experiencing normal volatility, not catastrophic losses.

Supply Distribution: The Whale Pause

The most striking on-chain trend is the complete halt in whale accumulation that had driven the late-2024 rally:

November 2025 (Month-to-date):

• Tier 4 (10-1K BTC Whales): -5,760 BTC (-0.11%) ← Key reversal
• Tier 5 (1K-10K BTC Institutional): +1,598 BTC (+0.04%)
• Tier 6 (>10K BTC Strategic Entities): +10,788 BTC (+0.38%)

October 2025:

• Tier 4 Whales: +115,203 BTC (+2.28%) ← Peak accumulation
• Tier 5 Institutional: -109,793 BTC (-2.54%)
• Tier 6 Strategic: +16,985 BTC (+0.61%)

September 2025:

• Tier 4 Whales: +110,974 BTC (+2.25%) ← Strong accumulation
• Tier 5 Institutional: -42,931 BTC (-0.98%)

This data reveals the critical driver of Bitcoin's weakness: the 10-1K BTC whale cohort, which added over 226,000 BTC during September-October (driving the rally to all-time highs), has suddenly turned into net sellers, distributing 5,760 BTC in November. When these whales "step off" accumulation, it's historically bearish for the market.

Interestingly, the largest holders (Strategic Entities >10K BTC) continue accumulating, gaining 10,788 BTC in November. But their volumes are insufficient to offset the whale distribution from the more nimble 10-1K BTC cohort.

Meanwhile, smaller cohorts show mixed behavior:

• Retail (0.01-1 BTC): -47 BTC (essentially flat)
• Mid-Range (1-10 BTC): +389 BTC (slight accumulation)

Exchange Reserves Hit Five-Year Lows

Despite whale selling, Bitcoin's supply dynamics remain fundamentally bullish:

• Exchange reserves: 2.455 million BTC—a five-year low
• Illiquid supply: 74% of all Bitcoin (hasn't moved in 2+ years)
• Dormant supply: 75% hasn't moved in 6+ months

This creates a paradox: heavy whale selling accompanied by declining exchange balances and increasing illiquid supply. The resolution is that institutional buyers—particularly the spot Bitcoin ETFs—were absorbing whale distribution throughout October. When ETF flows turned negative in late October and early November, removing this buying support, whale selling met diminished demand, and prices cascaded.

The Bottom Line: Where Bitcoin Goes From Here

Bitcoin stands at a critical inflection point. The convergence of AI bubble fears, tech sector weakness, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and shifting institutional flows has created a perfect storm—driving Bitcoin down 20% from all-time highs in less than a month.

The bear case is straightforward: Bitcoin has failed to decouple from risk assets despite narrative claims of being "digital gold." The asymmetric correlation with tech stocks—falling during selloffs but not rising during rallies—leaves Bitcoin exposed to downside without upside participation. If the AI bubble truly pops, triggering a broader tech correction of 20-30%, Bitcoin could cascade toward $90,000-$95,000. Continued ETF outflows, Fed hawkishness, whale distribution, flat futures curves, and overleveraged positioning create a toxic mix.

The bull case is equally compelling: On-chain fundamentals remain extraordinarily healthy, with 74% of supply illiquid, exchange balances at five-year lows, and MVRV Z-Scores in deeply undervalued territory (-2.1015). There are no signs of capitulation from long-term holders. The current correction looks like normal mid-cycle profit-taking, with realized prices providing support around $110,000. If the $95,000-$100,000 support zone holds and ETF flows reverse positive (potentially on year-end rebalancing), Bitcoin could recover rapidly toward $115,000-$125,000.

Key catalysts to watch:

• December's Fed meeting: Will Powell pivot dovish?
• Bitcoin ETF flows: Do institutions return or continue withdrawing?
• Tech earnings continuation: Do AI valuations stabilize?
• Futures curves: Return to contango or further flattening?
• Technical levels: $100K, $95K, $93.4K trendline

The deeper lesson: Bitcoin's evolution from fringe digital currency to mainstream institutional asset has been remarkable, but it's also transformed Bitcoin's behavior. The asset now trades more like a high-beta tech stock than a monetary hedge, responding to the same liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and risk sentiment that drive Nasdaq.

For the "digital gold" narrative to become reality rather than aspiration, Bitcoin needs to demonstrate stability during equity selloffs and dollar strength. So far in November 2025, it's failed that test. The current weakness is as much about Bitcoin's identity crisis as its price—a reckoning with what Bitcoin has become versus what advocates hoped it would be.

Understanding market turning points requires more than price charts—it demands comprehensive on-chain data, derivatives positioning, and institutional flow analysis. Explore more market intelligence on the  Amberdata Research Blog, access the institutional data infrastructure powering this research through Amberdata Intelligence, or speak with our team about tailored analytics for your organization.