This is Section 10, excerpted from our Amberdata Crypto Market Review 2025 and 2026 Outlook: Six Regimes, One Story. Our full report spans 14 sections - ETF flows, derivatives, onchain, liquidity, and our complete 2026 outlook.
MVRV, NUPL, Puell Multiple - the signals that called October's bottom and what they mean now.
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KEY TAKEAWAYS |
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MVRV at 1.41 signals undervaluation. The metric peaked at 2.524 in January but never approached the 3.5+ euphoria threshold that marked prior cycle tops. Current levels show a 41% premium to aggregate cost basis - elevated but nowhere near the 250-300% premiums of 2017 and 2021 peaks. Realized price at $61,120 provides structural floor. The aggregate cost basis rose 48% during 2025 as new buyers entered at higher prices through ETFs. With market price at $88,000, the +41% premium represents a healthy valuation above this key support. Miners in accumulation mode. MPI at -0.53 indicates miners are holding rather than selling. Combined with the Puell Multiple at 0.79, miner economics suggest post-halving adjustment is complete and selling pressure has abated. Network activity shows consolidation. Active addresses at 553,981 sit mid-range for 2025. Address momentum at 0.968 and adoption rate at 60.2% indicate continued network growth despite price consolidation. |
In October, MVRV touched 1.56 while NUPL dropped to 0.355 - levels that historically signal capitulation and mark cycle bottoms. For traders watching on-chain signals, this combination provided a clear buy signal that cut through the noise of panic headlines. Prices stabilized and began recovering in November as extreme pessimism created buying opportunities for those watching the blockchain rather than reading the headlines that were declaring crypto dead. The $19 billion in liquidations that defined October's chaos had cleared excess leverage without forcing the average holder underwater - a subtle but critical distinction.
But here is the puzzle that defines the 2026 setup: 2025 never reached the euphoria readings that typically mark cycle tops. MVRV peaked at 2.524 - well below the 3.5+ threshold that preceded the 2017 and 2021 crashes. NUPL never sustained greed zones above 0.75 despite prices reaching all-time highs above $125,000. The valuation metrics that called every prior cycle peak stayed silent throughout 2025, leaving market participants to wonder whether the signals had lost predictive power or the cycle simply was not finished. This question - structural change or incomplete cycle - is the central tension that frames all 2026 positioning decisions.
This section examines eleven valuation metrics across six market regimes. We analyze the foundational metrics - MVRV, Z-Score, NUPL, and realized price - that anchor all on-chain valuation analysis. We examine miner economics through the Puell Multiple, daily revenue, and the Miner Position Index. Finally, we assess network activity through liveliness, active addresses, and adoption metrics, to gauge underlying blockchain health.
Market Value to Realized Value. MVRV compares Bitcoin's market cap ($1.749 trillion) to its realized cap ($1.241 trillion, the sum of all coins valued at their last transaction price). The resulting ratio of 1.41 tells us the market trades at a 41% premium to aggregate cost basis. When MVRV is high, holders sit on substantial unrealized gains and face selling temptation. When low, the market approaches average acquisition cost - historically the best buying opportunities.
Figure 10.1: MVRV Ratio vs BTC Price - Horizontal bands mark euphoria (>3.5), elevated (2.5), normal (1.5-2.0), and undervalued (<1.5) zones. January peak at 2.524 and current 1.41 both remain well below historical euphoria thresholds.
Historical Context. MVRV above 3.5 has marked every major cycle top in Bitcoin's history. In 2017, MVRV peaked above 4.0 before the subsequent 84% crash from $20,000 to $3,200. In 2021, it touched 3.8 twice - once in April before the 55% correction and again in November before the 77% bear market. These euphoria readings represented 250-300% unrealized gains across the holder base, creating an overwhelming selling incentive that eventually broke each rally. In 2025, the metric peaked at just 2.524 during January's Policy Euphoria - elevated but nowhere near the euphoria threshold. Even at the year's most optimistic moment, valuations remained moderate by historical standards.
Two Interpretations. Either the cycle is structurally different - institutional holders through ETFs have higher price anchors and longer time horizons, permanently compressing MVRV readings - or the cycle simply is not finished. The absence of euphoria suggests more upside may remain before the kind of overvaluation that typically ends bull markets. Section 14 explores both scenarios and their implications for 2026 positioning.
Z-Score Standardization
The MVRV Z-Score measures how many standard deviations current MVRV sits from its 12-month rolling mean. With current MVRV at 1.410, the 12-month mean at 2.071, and standard deviation at 0.279, the Z-Score sits at -2.37. This deep undervaluation reading indicates Bitcoin spent 56 days below -2 standard deviations in 2025 - the longest sustained undervaluation since the 2022 bear market bottom. Z-scores above +7 marked the 2017 and 2021 peaks with months of warning; 2025 never exceeded +1.23.
Figure 10.2: MVRV Z-Score (12-Month Rolling) - Current -2.37 standard deviations indicates deep undervaluation relative to trailing 12-month behavior. Prior peaks saw Z-scores above +7; 2025 never exceeded +1.23.
Mapping Market Psychology. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures what percentage of supply is in profit versus loss. The formula maps directly to psychology: NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / Market Cap. With market cap at $1.749 trillion and realized cap at $1.241 trillion, current NUPL of 0.291 sits in the Optimism zone (0.25-0.50), meaning 29.1% of market value represents unrealized profit across all holders - healthy but not excessive. Throughout 2025, NUPL ranged from 0.285 (Fear zone during October's crash) to 0.604 (Greed territory in January) - but never entered sustained Euphoria above 0.75 that marked every prior cycle top. The absence of euphoria readings despite prices exceeding $125,000 is the statistical anomaly that demands explanation.
Figure 10.3: NUPL Sentiment vs BTC Price - Color-coded zones track sentiment: Euphoria (>0.75), Greed (0.50-0.75), Optimism (0.25-0.50), Hope (0-0.25), Fear (<0). Current 0.291 sits in Optimism after recovering from October's Fear.
The Missing Euphoria. Prior cycle tops featured months in Euphoria territory before crashing. The 2021 top saw NUPL above 0.75 for weeks before each major leg down, giving attentive observers clear warning that the market had reached unsustainable levels. In 2025, the market crashed without that warning - experiencing Fear-level readings without first reaching Greed extremes. This asymmetry - capitulation without prior euphoria - suggests the cycle may have further to run before exhaustion. The traditional cycle pattern of greed preceding fear appears to have been disrupted, though whether permanently or temporarily remains the key question for 2026.
<3.5
MVRV peak in 2025 - never reached the euphoria threshold that marked prior cycle tops in 2017 and 2021. Either this cycle is structurally different, or it is not finished.
Aggregate Cost Basis. Realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin supply - calculated by dividing realized cap by circulating supply. With realized cap at $1.241 trillion and supply at 19,969,787 BTC, realized price sits at $62,120. This metric rose 48% during 2025 (from approximately $42,000 at year-start) as new buyers entered at higher prices - particularly through ETF vehicles that added over $35 billion in net inflows. The rising realized price reflects a healthier cost basis distribution where recent buyers entered at prices well above bear market lows, reducing the overhang of underwater holders who might sell on any rally.
Figure 10.4: Realized Price vs Market Price - Realized price at $62,120 represents aggregate cost basis. Market price at $88,000 trades at +41% premium - elevated but healthy compared to 150%+ premiums seen at 2021 peak.
Premium Analysis. With market price at $88,000 and realized price at $62,120, Bitcoin trades at a +41.0% premium to aggregate cost basis. This premium calculation - (Market - Realized) / Realized - quantifies how much unrealized profit sits in the system. A 41% premium is elevated but moderate by historical standards - the 2021 peak saw premiums exceeding 150%, while bear market bottoms feature premiums approaching zero or briefly turning negative when the average holder is underwater. The current level suggests a market in the middle of its valuation range rather than at either extreme, leaving room for movement in both directions.
Floor Dynamics. Extended periods below realized price are historically rare and mark the best buying opportunities - March 2020's COVID crash and December 2022's FTX aftermath both saw brief dips below realized price that preceded massive rallies. October 2025's crash held above realized price despite $19 billion in liquidations, demonstrating healthier market structure than headlines about capitulation suggested.
$62,120
Realized price - aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin supply. With market at $88,000, the +41% premium indicates elevated but not excessive valuation above this structural floor.
Puell Multiple. The Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue to its 365-day moving average - measuring miner profitability relative to recent history. With current daily issuance at $36.7 million and the annual average at $46.7 million, the Puell Multiple sits at 0.79. This reading below 1.0 indicates miners earn less than their annual average - typical of post-halving adjustment periods. Throughout 2025, Puell ranged from 0.67 (near capitulation during October) to 1.57 (briefly overheated during January). Values above 1.4 signal overheated conditions; below 0.6 indicates miner capitulation.
Figure 10.5: Puell Multiple vs BTC Price - Current 0.79 sits below the 1.0 mean. 2025 range: 0.67 to 1.57. Post-halving adjustment appears complete with miners operating at sustainable economics.
Revenue Context. Bitcoin miners generated $17.05 billion in total revenue during 2025, averaging $46.7 million daily. This revenue comes from two sources: block subsidies (3.125 BTC per block following the April 2024 halving) and transaction fees that vary with network congestion. Current daily revenue of $36.7 million sits 21% below the YTD average, with the 30-day moving average at $39.8 million confirming compression. Lower revenue typically reduces selling pressure - miners with compressed margins hold more of their production rather than selling into weakness to cover operational costs. Only the most efficient miners can operate profitably at current revenue levels, which historically has led to hash rate consolidation and reduced selling pressure from the producer cohort.
Figure 10.6: Daily Miner Revenue vs BTC Price - Current $36.7M daily sits below 30D MA of $39.8M. YTD total: $17.05 billion. Compressed margins favor efficient miners who can accumulate.
Miner Position Index. MPI tracks whether miners are accumulating or distributing production - revealing the collective decision-making of the most operationally informed participants in the market. Values above 2 indicate heavy distribution where miners aggressively sell production; values near zero represent neutral behavior; negative values signal accumulation. Current MPI of -0.53 indicates miners are in accumulation mode - holding newly mined coins rather than immediately liquidating to cover operational costs. In 2025, MPI ranged from -0.87 (strong accumulation during October's crash when smart money was buying) to 4.78 (heavy distribution during January's peak when prices were elevated). The pattern demonstrates rational behavior: miners sold aggressively at high prices and accumulated at low prices, exactly what sophisticated market participants should do.
Figure 10.7: Miner Position Index vs BTC Price - Current MPI of -0.53 indicates accumulation mode. 2025 range: -0.87 to 4.78. Miners sold January highs and accumulated October lows.
-0.53
Miner Position Index - indicating accumulation mode. When participants with direct production costs choose to hold rather than sell, it signals conviction in higher future prices.
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SO WHAT? Miner economics tells a coherent story: post-halving adjustment is complete. Puell at 0.79 indicates normalized profitability without distress. MPI at -0.53 shows miners accumulating rather than selling. Combined with $17.05B YTD revenue, the miner cohort appears financially stable. Historically, miner accumulation precedes price appreciation as this sophisticated cohort positions ahead of retail sentiment shifts. |
Bitcoin Liveliness. Liveliness measures Coin Days Destroyed versus Coin Days Created - tracking whether old coins are being spent (indicating distribution by long-term holders) or new coins being held (indicating accumulation). The metric captures holder behavior at the aggregate level without requiring wallet-level identification. Current liveliness of 0.739 sits near the top of its 2025 range (0.640 to 0.740), indicating moderate long-term holder activity - some distribution but not aggressive selling. The 30-day moving average at 0.740 confirms this steady state. The inverse gives HODL percentage at 26.1% - roughly one-quarter of all Bitcoin supply sits dormant in long-term storage, providing a stable foundation that does not contribute to selling pressure during corrections.
Figure 10.8: Bitcoin Liveliness vs BTC Price - Current 0.739 near top of 2025 range. Lower values suggest holding; higher values indicate old coins moving. HODL percentage at 26.1%.
Active Addresses. Active addresses count unique addresses participating in on-chain transactions daily - a proxy for network usage and market interest. Current activity at 553,981 addresses sits mid-range for 2025 (406,619 to 762,218). Peak activity occurred during January's Policy Euphoria when retail interest surged and ETF launches drove transaction volumes to yearly highs. The October crash saw addresses drop to yearly lows near 406,000 as participants retreated to the sidelines, waiting for clarity before re-engaging. Current mid-range activity suggests normalized usage - neither the extreme speculation of peak euphoria nor the abandonment of true capitulation. The network continues processing transactions at healthy levels consistent with a consolidation phase.
Figure 10.9: Active Addresses vs BTC Price - Current 553,981 sits mid-range for 2025. Peaks during January rally, troughs during October crash. Normalized activity indicates consolidation phase.
Momentum and Adoption. Address Momentum compares short-term new address creation (30-day MA: 306,392) to long-term trends (365-day MA: 316,452). The resulting ratio of 0.968 indicates slightly decelerating growth - new address creation running 3.2% below the annual average. Momentum above 1.0 signals accelerating adoption where growth is expanding; below 1.0 indicates the growth rate is slowing from recent averages. The current neutral reading neither signals explosive growth nor concerning decline. Combined with Adoption Rate at 60.2% (new addresses as percentage of active addresses), the network continues attracting new users even during periods of price consolidation - a healthy sign for long-term fundamentals and future demand.
Figure 10.10: Address Momentum and Adoption Rate - Momentum at 0.968 shows slight deceleration. Adoption rate at 60.2% indicates healthy new user onboarding despite price consolidation.
Network activity shows consolidation, not capitulation. Momentum near 1.0, liveliness stable, adoption above 60% - the on-chain foundation remains healthy despite price volatility.
Regime Mapping. Mapping metrics to 2025's six regimes reveals how valuations evolved. R1 (Policy Euphoria) produced peak readings: MVRV 2.38, Z-Score 0.73, NUPL 0.580, delivering +9.9% returns. R2 (Security Shock) saw compression after the Bybit hack: MVRV 2.26, Z-Score 0.11, with -19.9% returns. R3 (Infrastructure Build) stabilized: MVRV 2.07, Z-Score -0.43, +21.8% returns. R4 (Institutional Expansion) brought modest recovery: MVRV 2.22, Z-Score 0.14, +8.0% returns.
Figure 10.11: On-Chain Valuation by Regime - Average MVRV, Z-Score, NUPL, and Puell across six regimes. R1 elevated valuations, R5 crash compression, R6 deep undervaluation.
Crash and Recovery. R5 (Macro Shock) saw rapid valuation compression as October's trade-war-driven crash unfolded: MVRV dropped to 2.06, Z-Score fell to -0.87, NUPL compressed to 0.512, delivering -7.0% returns across 31 chaotic days that saw $19 billion in liquidations. But the reset was proportional to prior expansion - not an overcorrection into capitulation. R6 (Fragile Recovery) shows the current state: deep undervaluation with MVRV at 1.56, Z-Score at -2.49, NUPL at 0.355, and Puell at 0.88. These readings historically precede significant recoveries within 3-6 months, though R6 has delivered -20.4% returns as prices consolidate and the market digests October's volatility.
Pattern Recognition. The regime data confirms what individual metrics suggest: valuations peaked in R1 but never reached euphoria territory, compressed gradually through R2-R5 as the market digested security concerns and institutional expansion, then dropped sharply during October's macro shock. Now in R6, metrics sit in deep undervaluation territory - exactly where they sat before prior major rallies. Prior cycle bottoms featured months of sustained capitulation with MVRV below 1.0 and NUPL in negative territory; October was sharp but brief, lasting only 31 days before stabilization began. The signals that marked every prior top - MVRV above 3.5, NUPL sustained above 0.75, Puell above 1.4 - never arrived in 2025.
Two Scenarios. Either the cycle continues along historical lines - 2026 sees MVRV push toward 3.5+ and NUPL enters sustained Euphoria above 0.75 before the next major correction arrives - or institutional adoption has structurally changed how these metrics behave. ETF holders with longer time horizons and higher price anchors may permanently compress traditional valuation signals. Corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth funds do not panic sell during 26% drawdowns the way retail speculators did in prior cycles. This new holder composition could mean euphoria (as historically defined) never arrives because the holder base has fundamentally changed. Section 14 explores both scenarios with specific price targets and probability weightings.
Thresholds to Watch. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, certain thresholds provide clear signals that the cycle is approaching completion. Watch for MVRV approaching 3.5 as the first euphoria warning - the level that marked every prior cycle top. Monitor NUPL entering sustained Greed above 0.50, then Euphoria above 0.75 as holders accumulate substantial unrealized gains. Track the Puell Multiple exceeding 1.4 as a sign of overheated miner economics and increasing selling pressure from producers. Pay close attention to MPI - when miners shift from accumulation to heavy distribution above 2.0, sophisticated money with the best operational insight is taking profits. Until these readings arrive, the cycle appears incomplete by historical standards and the on-chain evidence favors continued accumulation.
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THE BOTTOM LINE |
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On-chain valuation metrics remain among the most reliable regime indicators. In 2025, they identified October as a buying opportunity while highlighting the unusual absence of euphoria. Current setup - MVRV at 1.41, Z-Score at -2.37, miners accumulating, network activity stable - historically precedes recoveries. Whether this cycle follows historical patterns or represents structural change from institutional adoption remains the central 2026 question. Watch for MVRV approaching 3.5, NUPL entering Euphoria above 0.75, and Puell exceeding 1.4 as cycle completion signals. |
This analysis builds on Section 9's Great Rotation - the 123,173 BTC accumulated by mega whales while retail distributed. Section 3's regime framework establishes the six market phases referenced throughout. Section 14 uses these metrics to construct 2026 scenarios with specific price targets and probability weightings.
This article provides the on-chain valuation analysis. The full Amberdata Crypto Market Review 2025 goes deeper:
• The $80,000 floor: What happens when ETF cost basis breaks?
• Which ETF issuer is already underwater? The entity-level breakdown
• 123,173 BTC: The mega whale accumulation hiding in plain sight
• $60K or $180K? 2026 scenarios with specific price targets
• And more...
Full-Market Research. Institutional Depth. Derivatives, ETFs, on-chain, DEXs, microstructure, risk signals - and more. Subscribe at the bottom of our page for research that covers every corner of crypto and visit the Amberdata Research Blog.
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Recommended next reads
Part 1/3: The $80,000 Floor (ETF Cost Basis)
The ETF Exodus Decoded: Basis Arbitrage, Not Capitulation
Bitcoin's Great Rotation: Who Bought the Dip
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