Macro relief is building as inflation eases and job creation is revised down. Yet BTC treasury concentration, negative skew, and weakening basis hint that downside reflexivity remains a live risk. Here’s what the derivatives market is signaling.
Friday’s CPI reading came in better than expected.
Although the core-CPI (excludes energy) came in +2.5% y/y (in-line), the headline CPI came in below expectation at +2.4%. This move lower was lead by the success of lower oil/gas prices.
CPI (bls.gov)
We’ve seen oil prices continue to drop persistently since the November 2024 election results. WTI has dropped from $72 down to $62.50 but as low as $56 since the election.
This relief in CPI pressure helped push bond yields lower as the Fed can safely cut rates later, without fear of price inflation.
US unemployment rate (FRED / bls.gov)
The employment numbers were a bit more mixed for the health of the economy (another bond bullish reading).
Although the Payrolls number for January came in at +130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate came lower at +4.3%… there was a major revision for job creation in 2025.
Job creation was revised down by -898k for 2025.
This downside surprise was about 2x the typical annual revision magnitude.
Both CPI and employment give the Fed some arguments for lower rates going forward.
This week we will have the PCE and GDP numbers released Friday.
PCE is the official inflation target metric and it will be interesting to see if it echos the most recent CPI reading.
These were prices on Feb 15, 2026.
BTC: $68,239 (-3.5% / 7-day)
ETH: $1,941 (-7.5% / 7-day)
SOL: $85.41 (-1.7% / 7-day)
The big question on everyone’s mind is wether crypto has bottomed-out or if there’s still more downside on the horizon?
The driving variable to watch in my opinion is the sentiment around DAT holdings and the flow-of-funds into/out of the spot ETFs.
This tweet was going around X.com this week…
Michael Saylor mentioned that Bitcoin could reach $8,000 and MSTR would be able to hold that position for 4-years before needing to roll their debt.
And interesting point comes to my mind however… What happens if the mNAV trades below 1.00 (could it?)
Owning BTC at $8,000 can actually be held forever (BTC can’t go bankrupt), owning the MSTR stock gets you a 4-year option?
If the mNAV starts trading below 1.00 for MSTR or other DATs, the incentive to sell crypto inventory and use the proceeds to rebuy shares becomes strong… there’s essentially free money to be had by rebuying shares… the problem is sell-side supply hits the crypto market in that case and prices could drop further…
This could create an incentive for smaller DATs to be first to sell??
Something to keep in mind when thinking through the “Price Spiral” scenario.
Comparing BTC, ETH, and SOL we can get an idea of the DAT risk…
BTC DAT holdings
ETH DAT holdings
SOL DAT holdings
Maybe this provides and interesting opportunity in the relative vol trade using the ∆25 RR-skew
BTC ∆25 RR (pro.amberdata.io)
SOL ∆25 RR (pro.amberdata.io)
Looking at the ∆25 RR-Skew (adjusted by ATM IV) we can see the RR-Skew is already a bit more negative for BTC than Solana… but in a downward unloading of DATs, there’s 2.5x more DAT inventory that could impact BTC than Solana.
This could be an interesting type of hedge… Sell OTM Solana puts and use collected premium to buy BTC puts (adjusted for beta / vol difference).
Just an idea to kick around (not sure I love this trade).
Another important concept to keep in mind in the crypto mining “hash-rate”.
Over the past decade, price appreciation has financed the deployment of more and more sophisticated crypto mining rigs. This has steadily increased the hash-rate and the associated network security.
What happens is prices drop and stay low for a long time? Do miners quit? Does the hash-rate come down significantly? Does that impact the network integrity and security?
BTC 90-day Basis (intelligence.amberdata.com)
Looking at the BTC fixed term basis is another good clue around sentiment and market positioning. The cost of leverage should be similar to the risk-free rate (imo).
Today, the 90-day risk-free cost of capital is 3.67% for USD.
When the 90-day BTC basis is priced at 3.67% investors are indifferent… If the basis is higher than +3.67% investors are paying a premium for access to BTC futures long leverage… if it’s less than 3.67% investors are offered a discount for BTC long leverage (due to shorts willing to supply futures aggressively).
We can see that since the start of February, 90-day BTC basis has broken lower… testing as low at 2.80% multiple times throughout the month.
A true capitulation and exhaustion move would send basis NEGATIVE (below 0%) in my opinion, as investors hedge their exposure aggressively (at any cost).
This is something to keep an eye on… We saw this activity during the COVID crash, FTX bankruptcy (especially in Solana).
intelligence.amberdata.com
On the bullish side of the equation, market leverage has greatly been reduced as the “sell2close” liquidations have forced excessive leverage out of the market.
intelligence.amberdata.com
We can see total notional exposure of market leverage (a function of spot prices) are back to the lowest levels seen since the 2024 presidential election.
AMBERDATA DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this research is for educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. None of the information in this report constitutes, or should be relied on as a suggestion, offer, or other solicitation to engage in, or refrain from engaging, in any purchase, sale, or any other investment-related activity. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature. Don’t invest more than what you can afford to lose.
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