Our comprehensive weekly coverage of price action and volatility, trading volumes and market structure (orderbook depth/spreads), derivatives markets (open interest, funding rates, long/short positioning, term structure/basis), institutional flows (Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoin supply across chains), and DeFi credit markets (lending protocol TVL, utilization, liquidations).
For a deeper look at how we got here, see our full Amberdata Crypto Market Review 2025 and 2026 Outlook: Six Regimes, One Story.
Bear Market Deepens, Selective Recovery Emerges: Digital assets remain under significant pressure with BTC at $68,804 (-2.0% WoW) after briefly testing $70,938 before failing to hold. ETH underperformed at $1,992 (-4.7%), extending its drawdown to -40.3% over 30 days. The week's standouts were AAVE (+12.1%) on the Grayscale ETF filing catalyst, DOGE (+6.4%), and XRP (+4.0%). Total 7D volume reached $949.1B with a derivatives/spot ratio of 3.42x, reflecting normal leverage conditions. Open interest held steady at $56.30B (+0.4% WoW), though BTC OI contracted -4.9% as positioning consolidated.
Derivatives Signal Mixed Conviction: Funding rates paint a split picture - BTC maintains positive funding at 0.12% (16.2% APR) and ETH at 0.19% (25.5% APR), but the market-wide average plunged to -0.70% (-96.3% APR) dragged by alt-coin shorts. SOL funding turned deeply negative at -0.31% (-42.7% APR). Long/short ratios show moderate bullishness with ETH at 2.65x, BNB at 2.67x, and DOGE at 2.62x, while BTC remains neutral at 1.77x. The BTC 7D basis APR sits at 3.22%, up +107bps WoW, suggesting mild carry-trade demand returning.
Institutional Flows Diverge, Stablecoin Minting Continues: Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$706.5M in net outflows for the week, with 21Shares leading redemptions at -$663.2M while Grayscale Mini (+$35.4M) and WisdomTree (+$14.0M) attracted modest inflows. Total ETF AUM stands at $95.37B. In contrast, stablecoin supply expanded $1.32B to $268.1B, led by continued USDT and USDC minting - a bullish divergence suggesting dry powder accumulation despite ETF-level de-risking. DeFi lending TVL held at $44.84B with utilization at 34.9% and just $1.3M in 7D liquidations, indicating healthy credit conditions.
Forward Outlook: Market remains in a fragile recovery regime following the crash from $126K all-time highs. Constructive signals include returning basis carry demand (+107bps WoW), resilient orderbook depth (BTC +8.1% WoW), stablecoin inflows (+$1.32B), and minimal DeFi liquidation stress. Key risk factors include sustained ETF outflows (-$706.5M), deeply negative alt funding rates, and the upcoming PCE inflation report and Fed minutes. BTC must reclaim $70,000 decisively to confirm stabilization; failure to hold $65,000 reopens downside to $60,000. Regime: fragile recovery, awaiting macro confirmation.
Selective Recovery Amid Broad Weakness: BTC closed the week at $68,804 (-2.0%), trading within a $64,990-$70,938 range as the CPI-driven rally to $70K failed to sustain. ETH fell -4.7% to $1,992, now down -40.3% over 30 days. SOL held relatively well at $86.04 (-1.1%). Outperformers included AAVE at $126.40 (+12.1%) on the Grayscale ETF filing, DOGE at $0.101 (+6.4%), and XRP at $1.48 (+4.0%). WLFI was the week's laggard at -7.3%. The divergence between majors and select alts reflects catalyst-driven positioning rather than broad risk appetite recovery.
Volume Compression Persists: Total 7D volume reached $949.1B, split between $214.7B spot and $734.5B derivatives, yielding a derivatives/spot ratio of 3.42x - consistent with normal leverage conditions. The 7D volume declined -48.2% WoW from the prior week's elevated crash-driven activity, while 1D volume rose +44.7% as weekend trading picked up. BTC dominated with $351.6B in combined volume, followed by ETH at $248.9B and SOL at $51.9B.
Volatility Remains Elevated Across the Board: BTC 7D realized volatility registered 59.4%, well above historical norms but declining from last week's 82.9%. ETH registered 64.8% (down from 120.6%), SOL 76.1%, and XRP 73.4%. The standout was UNI at 214.2% realized vol, reflecting extreme intraweek swings. AAVE was at 82.6% on the ETF news catalyst. The volatility regime is cooling from crisis levels but remains firmly elevated.
Forward Signals: BTC faces immediate resistance at $70,000 with support at $65,000. Volume confirmation above $70K would require sustained spot volume above $40B/day. The ETH/BTC ratio continues deteriorating, reflecting relative weakness in smart contract platforms. Realized vol declining from 83% to 59% is constructive but above 50% readings signal continued elevated risk.
OI Stabilizes After Deleveraging: Total open interest stands at $56.30B, up a marginal +0.4% ($+0.20B) WoW after the massive -30.9% drawdown over 30 days. BTC OI declined -4.9% to $23.11B while ETH held relatively flat at $12.87B (-0.9%). SOL OI contracted -6.7% to $2.69B. BTC and ETH together account for 63.9% of total OI. The perp/futures split remained heavily skewed to perpetuals, with perps at $53.11B representing 94.3% of total OI.
Alt OI Shows Divergent Signals: PUMP led alt OI expansion at +86.8%, followed by ZEC at +29.5%, DOGE at +15.3%, ADA at +12.1%, and BCH at +11.8%. Defensive assets XAUT (-13.2%) and PAXG (-5.7%) saw OI decline as gold-linked positioning unwound. The alt OI expansion in DOGE and BCH aligned with positive price moves, suggesting genuine positioning rather than liquidation-driven OI.
Venue Flows Show Hyperliquid Surge: Hyperliquid saw the largest venue-level OI increase at +28.0% (+$1.14B) to $5.23B, now commanding 9.3% market share. Huobi grew +4.9% and dYdX surged +39.3% from a low base. Traditional venues contracted: Binance -3.0% (-$0.60B), Bybit -2.4% (-$0.24B), and OKX -1.5% (-$0.10B). Deribit held steady at $3.35B (+0.4%) with a distinctive 49%/51% perp/futures split reflecting options-adjacent activity.
Forward Signals: OI stabilization at $56B after the 31% monthly decline suggests a new positioning floor. The Hyperliquid share gain at the expense of established CEXes signals evolving venue preference among leveraged traders. Watch for OI re-expansion above $60B as a confirmation of renewed directional conviction. Current regime: post-deleveraging consolidation.
Majors Hold Positive, Market Turns Deeply Negative: BTC 7D average funding was at 0.12% (16.2% APR), recovering from last week's -0.13% (-17.1% APR). ETH improved to 0.19% (25.5% APR) from -0.01% (-1.7% APR). SOL remains negative at -0.31% (-42.7% APR), though materially improved from last week's extreme -1.48% (-202.8% APR). The market-wide average sits at -0.70% (-96.3% APR), still deeply negative but showing early normalization from the prior week's -0.72% (-98.9% APR).
Alt Funding Reveals Bearish Extremes: The funding rate dispersion between majors and alts has widened significantly. While BTC and ETH maintain mild positive carry, the broader market's -96.3% annualized rate indicates extreme short positioning in altcoins. This divergence often precedes either a sharp short squeeze in alts or continued major asset weakness as the funding differential normalizes.
Arbitrage Opportunities Emerge: Cross-exchange funding spreads present significant carry opportunities. AVAX shows a 27.2% annualized spread (short Bitmex at +1.11%, long Arkham at -26.05%). LINK offers 22.8% (short Bitmex at +1.98%, long Arkham at -20.82%). WLFI presents 8.2% (short Huobi at +1.00%, long Binance at -7.24%). These spreads are unusually wide, reflecting fragmented positioning across venues.
Forward Signals: The extreme negative market-wide funding (-96.3% APR) historically signals overcrowded short positioning that can unwind violently. BTC and ETH's positive funding provides a floor for major-asset carry trades. Watch for market-wide funding normalization above -20% APR as a signal of sentiment recovery. Current regime: extreme bearish - historically a contrarian signal.
Week on Week Below
Depth Rebuilds Across Majors: BTC 200bps depth stands at $652.3M, recovering +8.1% WoW from last week's $603.2M, with a strong +12.7% 1D gain indicating market makers are actively restoring liquidity. ETH depth reached $451.2M (+4.6% WoW, vs $431.3M prior), and SOL held at $186.0M (+1.7% WoW). The depth recovery signals improving market maker confidence after the deleveraging event.
Venue Distribution: Binance maintains the deepest BTC books, followed by OKX and Bybit. The broad-based depth improvement across venues suggests coordinated market maker re-entry rather than single-venue dynamics. ETH depth improvement of +4.6% reflects continued institutional interest in providing liquidity at current price levels.
Inner-Book Liquidity Strengthens: BTC 5bps (tight) depth jumped +28.3% WoW to $53.5M, and 20bps depth rose +24.4% to $248.7M, outpacing the broader 200bps improvement. This inner-book recovery reduces execution costs for institutional-sized orders and suggests increased HFT and market-making activity at tight spreads. The 30D comparison remains mixed: BTC +3.4%, ETH -8.9%, SOL -33.5%.
Forward Signals: Depth above $600M in BTC at 200bps provides a structural floor against flash crashes. Continue monitoring SOL depth, which remains -33.5% below 30D levels and vulnerable to additional deterioration if selling resumes. Current regime: depth recovery underway, defensive but orderly.
BTC Depth
ETH Depth
SOL Depth
BTC Spreads Tighten to Excellent: BTC average spread sits at 0.10bps, tightening -24.2% WoW from last week's 0.13bps. ETH matches at 0.13bps (-2.9% WoW), unchanged from last week. Both remain in the Excellent classification, confirming institutional-grade execution quality even as volatility remains elevated. The BTC spread improvement reflects normalizing liquidity conditions.
SOL Spreads Improve: SOL average spread narrowed to 1.33bps (-8.7% WoW), improving from last week's 1.46bps. The spread remains in the Good classification. The persistent gap versus BTC/ETH spreads reflects the higher risk premium for mid-cap assets, but the directional improvement is constructive.
Venue Dispersion Minimal: Cross-venue spread dispersion remains tight for BTC and ETH, indicating efficient arbitrage across Binance, OKX, and Bybit. The 30D spread context shows BTC +36.7% wider, ETH +101.0%, and SOL +75.6% - reflecting the structural impact of the February crash on market-making parameters, even as weekly trends improve.
Forward Signals: Sub 0.15bps BTC spreads during elevated volatility confirms structural market maturation. Watch for ETH spread compression below 0.10bps as a signal of market maker risk appetite recovery. SOL below 1.0bps would confirm restored mid-cap confidence. Current regime: healthy execution quality maintained through correction.
BTC Spreads
ETH Spreads
SOL Spreads
Positioning Tilts Moderately Long: The market-wide weighted L/S ratio stands at 2.04x, up from last week's 2.00x, indicating moderate long bias is rebuilding. ETH leads at 2.65x (+0.35 vs 7DMA, Bullish classification), BNB at 2.67x (+0.08 vs 7DMA, Bullish), and DOGE at 2.62x (-0.04 vs 7DMA, Bullish). BTC remains Neutral at 1.77x (+0.02 vs 7DMA), improving from last week's 1.69x.
SOL and AAVE Show Reduced Conviction: SOL's L/S ratio declined to 1.86x (-0.17 vs 7DMA), down -12.6% WoW from 2.12x, aligning with its negative funding rate. AAVE fell to 1.21x (-0.07 vs 7DMA) despite leading price performance, suggesting the +12.1% rally was spot-driven rather than leverage amplified - a healthier dynamic. WLFI at 1.53x (-0.02 vs 7DMA) held relatively stable.
Historical Context Shows Deleveraging: The 90D L/S changes reveal the extent of positioning destruction: BTC -38.5%, SOL -61.3%, AVAX -33.4%, BNB -34.0%. The market has gone from aggressively long to neutral-long over the quarter, representing a significant reset in speculative conviction. This deleveraging creates room for re-positioning if catalysts emerge.
Forward Signals: BTC L/S above 2.0x would confirm directional conviction returning. ETH's 2.65x is the most aggressive positioning among majors and could face unwind risk if price fails to hold $2,000. Watch for SOL L/S stabilization above 2.0x as an ecosystem recovery signal. Current regime: long-biased with selective rebuilding.
BTC Basis Recovers to Positive Carry: BTC term structure reads 3.22% at 7D and 3.31% at 30D, recovering from last week's compressed 2.15% at 7D. The +107bps WoW improvement signals returning carry demand. The term spread of +9bps (7D to 30D) is nearly flat, indicating limited term premium. The recovery from deeply compressed levels is constructive, though still below the 5%+ readings that signal strong bullish conviction.
ETH Basis Improves Materially: ETH 7D APR climbed to 2.85%, up +155bps from last week's 1.30%. The improvement is the largest weekly basis gain among majors, suggesting institutional re-engagement with ETH carry trades. XRP maintained a positive 3.74% APR and DOGE held at 3.66%, both modestly constructive.
SOL Remains Deeply Inverted: SOL 7D APR sits at -15.15%, deteriorating further from last week's -3.12%. The deepening inversion reflects intensified short positioning and a market pricing further ecosystem-specific downside. The SOL-BTC basis spread of -18.4% is the widest among tracked assets, confirming the bifurcation between major and mid-cap assets.
Forward Signals: BTC basis above 5% APR would signal bullish conviction returning. ETH basis normalization above 4% would confirm institutional re-engagement. SOL returning to a positive basis would be the most significant recovery signal for mid-cap sentiment. Current regime: early basis recovery in majors, persistent stress in alts.
Weekly Flows Resume Net Outflows: Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$706.5M in net outflows for the week ending February 13, reversing the brief $616M inflow streak from the prior week. The latest single day (February 13) saw -$971.4M in outflows - one of the largest single-session redemptions in recent weeks. The 30D cumulative outflows total -$3.23B, and 90D outflows have reached -$4.97B, reflecting sustained institutional de-risking since the October high.
21Shares Leads Outflows, Grayscale Mini Absorbs: 21Shares dominated weekly redemptions at -$663.2M, followed by Grayscale (-$86.5M), BlackRock (-$8.3M), and Invesco (-$7.2M). On the inflow side, Grayscale Mini attracted +$35.4M, WisdomTree +$14.0M, Valkyrie +$4.8M, VanEck +$3.6M, and Franklin Templeton +$1.9M. The concentration of outflows in 21Shares suggests mechanical redemption activity rather than broad investor capitulation.
AUM Stable Despite Price Decline: Total ETF AUM stands at $95.37B, down from last week's $98.44B. BlackRock dominates at $51.31B (53.8% market share), followed by Fidelity at $24.11B (25.3%) and Grayscale at $10.54B (11.1%). Despite BTC falling over 40% from its all-time high, total BTC held across ETFs has only declined approximately 6%, confirming that the AUM decline is primarily price-driven rather than redemption-driven.
Forward Signals: Sustained weekly inflows above $500M would confirm momentum reversal. BlackRock's minimal 0.2% IBIT redemption rate during the crash signals structural stickiness in advisor-driven allocations. Watch for 21Shares outflow normalization as a key indicator of mechanical selling pressure abating. Current regime: institutional risk reduction continuing, but structural holdings resilient.
Weekly Expansion Continues, Pace Moderates: Total stablecoin supply stands at $268.1B, with $1.32B in net mints over the past 7 days - a meaningful inflow but moderating from last week's strong +$4.5B expansion to $270.1B. The 30D net mints total $1.57B, and 90D cumulative mints have reached $5.40B. The continued expansion during market weakness represents a bullish divergence as dry powder accumulates on the sidelines.
Network Flows Favor Ethereum and Tron: Ethereum mainnet hosts $165.6B (61.8% of total supply), followed by Tron at $86.8B (32.4%). L2 ecosystems show growing adoption: Arbitrum at $6.25B (2.3%), Base at $4.27B (1.6%), and Avalanche at $2.53B (0.9%). The Ethereum-Tron concentration at 94.2% of total supply remains the structural norm, consistent with last week's 94.3%.
Supply Composition Steady: USDT dominates at $183.0B (68.2% share), with USDC at $64.4B (24.0%). USDS holds $6.9B (2.6%) and USDe $6.6B (2.4%). PYUSD at $3.0B (1.1%) continues growing. The USDT/USDC composition remains stable versus last week's 69.0%/23.4% split. Total dry powder at $268B provides substantial capital reserves for market re-entry.
Forward Signals: Net mints above $1B/week signal significant dry powder entering the ecosystem. USDC re-engagement (increasing share vs USDT) would confirm institutional risk-on rotation. The current 1.16x mint/burn ratio supports continued supply expansion. Watch for total supply approaching $275B as a milestone signal. Current regime: steady capital staging, bullish divergence from price action.
TVL Stable, Credit Conditions Healthy: Total DeFi lending TVL stands at $44.84B across the top 5 protocols, declining -2.3% WoW from last week's $46.27B. Aave v3 on Ethereum mainnet dominates at $35.99B (80.3% share) with 38.5% utilization. The 30D TVL drawdown of -23.9% reflects the broader market correction rather than protocol-specific withdrawals, indicating DeFi infrastructure remains structurally sound.
Utilization Low, Capacity Abundant: Market-wide utilization sits at 34.9%, unchanged from last week, with $15.67B in total borrowing against $44.84B in deposits. Available capacity exceeds $29B. Average borrow APR rose to 4.4% (+178bps WoW from last week's 2.5%) as demand for leverage briefly increased during the CPI-driven rally. The low utilization signals orderly conditions rather than credit stress.
Liquidations Collapse from Stress Levels: 7D liquidations plunged to just $1.3M, down -$340.3M from last week's elevated $268.7M that marked the deleveraging peak. The dramatic decline confirms that overleveraged positions have been flushed and remaining collateral is well-positioned. Active users totaled 86,830 (up from 73,099) with protocol revenue of $6.82M (up from $2.00M), indicating renewed engagement.
Forward Signals: Utilization above 50% would signal credit tightening. Liquidations above $50M/week would indicate stress re-emerging. The current structure of low utilization (34.9%), minimal liquidations ($1.3M), and healthy collateral ratios (272%) supports continued market stability. Current regime: post-stress normalization, credit healthy.
Full-Market Research. Institutional Depth. Derivatives, ETFs, on-chain, DEXs, microstructure, risk signals - and more. Subscribe at the bottom of our page for research that covers every corner of crypto and visit the Amberdata Research Blog.
Access Amberdata Intelligence for institutional-grade digital asset intelligence, or contact our team to discuss custom solutions.
Platform
Recommended next reads
2026 Outlook:
2025 Review
ETF Cost Basis Series
More Key Reads
• Bitcoin Volatility Surges as Macro Data and Derivatives Signals Align
• Bitcoin’s Great Rotation: Who Bought the Dip and Why It Matters
• October 2025 Crash Explained Through 7 Charts
• Five Signals of FOMC Impact on Crypto Market Microstructure
Disclaimers
The information contained in this report is provided by Amberdata solely for educational and informational purposes. The contents of this report should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other form of professional advice. Amberdata does not provide personalized recommendations; any opinions or suggestions expressed in this report are for general informational purposes only.
Although Amberdata has made every effort to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it cannot be held responsible for any errors, omissions, inaccuracies, or outdated information. Market conditions, regulations, and laws are subject to change, and readers should perform their own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions or taking any actions based on the information provided in this report.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, and any investments discussed or mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all individuals or circumstances. Investing involves risks, and the value of investments can go up or down. Amberdata disclaims any liability for any loss or damage that may arise from the use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this report.
By accessing and using the information provided in this report, you agree to indemnify and hold harmless Amberdata, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors, employees, and agents from and against any and all claims, losses, liabilities, damages, or expenses (including reasonable attorney's fees) arising from your use of or reliance on the information contained herein.
© 2026 Amberdata. All rights reserved.