Markets jumped after the NY Fed signaled a likely rate cut, boosting risk assets and setting the stage for a potential end-of-year “Santa Rally” in crypto. BTC volatility is easing, with $100k a key level to watch. Read the full Amberdata Derivatives Newsletter below.
*Various Fed Governors Speak during the week*
The markets for crypto and overall risk-assets found a bid as the NY Fed President said that a rate cut would be the path of least regret.
This occurred on Friday, Nov. 21st.
We can see the Polymarket odds instantly reacted to these comments.
The CME Fed Funds futures odds also reacted as the probability of a December 10th rate cut jumped to 87.4% (now) versus 45.8% (nov 16th)
Chart: November 30th, 2025 (CME Fedwatch Tool)
Chart: November 16th, 2025 (CME FedWatch Tool)
This momentum brought us higher into Thanksgiving trading, which is typically a thin market. Which means markets can easily “trend” on one-way flow (buyers react, while sellers are on vacation).
Chart: TradingView.com (S&P 500 futures chart, Nov 21 bottom)
Last week there was insight from the Fed’s “Beige Book” release, this showed only a bit of inflation pressures (modest) while the business growth from consumer spending softened a little bit.
Overall it seems that things are somewhat steady but on balance a rate cut next Wednesday (Dec 10th) would remain the prudent path for the Fed.
This upcoming week we have the ADP employment numbers on Wednesday, PCE Friday (the Fed’s favourite inflation measure) and Powell speaking on Monday evening.
BTC: $91,027 (+4.0% / 7-day)
ETH: $3,018 (+6.9% / 7-day)
SOL: $136.89 (+3.4% / 7-day)
Bitcoin is well placed for a continued move higher in an EOY “Santa Rally” move.
Given the rate cut narrative, the potential Ukraine/Russia peace deal, the dovish May 2026 Fed Chairman pick… I could see markets having a relief rally into EOY.
Volatility is currently relatively high, given the recent BTC selloff from $120k → $85k.
The current negative spot/vol correlation likely continues to hold, and therefore grabbing exposure via a BTC +1/-2 Call spread is my favourite setup here.
If markets crash… then “no-harm, no-foul”.
If markets pick-up… I expect IV to drop and markets to recover back towards the $100k+ level.
We can see both the DVol index and the Realized Volatility measures for BTC are coming down from near YTD high zones.
The options outstanding open interest is also on the lighter side for Deribit. After a recent expiration cycle, we’re seeing mid-summer open interest exposure levels.
If we back out the GEX exposure on Deribit, we see that the street (traders) are long a lot of the $100k paper.
$100k is a psychological technical spot level, but also an important inflection point for the options market.
As we approach $100k, dealers' gamma rebalancing will accelerate the move higher, unless spot sellers look to unload at $100k.
We’ll need to see how the level holds as support or resistance, but getting back to $100k for a market “test” is a good opportunity for the EOY Santa rally imo.
Especially given the volatility surface opportunity.
BTC
ETH
HYPE holders can now use their tokens as collateral to trade options and perps on Derive. TVL stays on @HyperliquidX while users generate yield on Derive. HYPE becomes a yield-bearing collateral.
Derive has also integrated SpiceNet - a DeFi brokerage network!
Unified trading engine lets traders access Derive’s options and perps from any network, through a single API account.
AMBERDATA DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this research is for educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. None of the information in this report constitutes, or should be relied on as a suggestion, offer, or other solicitation to engage in, or refrain from engaging, in any purchase, sale, or any other investment-related activity. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature. Don’t invest more than what you can afford to lose.