FOMC May minutes confirmed a two-sided framework with hike risk in play; the 10-year eased to 4.56% from a 52-week high of 4.687%, with NVDA beating but falling on buy-the-rumor. April PCE on May 28 is the first inflation read of the Warsh era as the Iran oil shock still feeds through. Inside crypto, BTC funding flipped positive (96th percentile), liquidity tightened, and ETF streaks turned positive on still-negative 7-day flows; not a regime change.
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BTC at $77.3K (72nd percentile) holds while ETH at $2.1K (36th, down from 43rd last week) lags. ETH RV ratio crossed 1.0x to 1.03x (78th percentile, up from 0.72x at the 3rd): ETH vol expanding short-term while BTC stays just under at 0.99x. BTC total volume at $27.4B is at a 90-day low, down sharply from $60.9B last week. Deriv/spot remains elevated (BTC 4.59x, ETH 7.84x, both above the 75th).
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BTC spread compressed from 2.0bps (100th percentile last week) to 0.1bps, near a 90-day low, while ETH dropped from 1.9bps to 0.7bps. Depth at 10bps deepened on both: BTC $281M, ETH $175M, above last week's reads. Bid imbalance held strong: BTC at 52.2%, ETH at 50.8%, both above the 75th percentile. BTC depth concentration at 28.8% is the standout: book stacking near mid.
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BTC funding flipped to +2.9% APR (96th percentile) from -2.6% (40th) last week, with the short squeeze setup playing out mechanically. ETH at +2.2%, BNB still hot at +6.9% (75th+), only SOL negative at -0.8%. BTC basis improved to 0.4% APR (was 0.0% at the 3rd percentile) but remains compressed. ETH term spread negative at -1.8bps, contango unwinding. Longs now pay carry across the cohort.
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Open interest mixed: BTC at the 71st percentile, ETH at the 38th (down from 72nd last week). ETH L/S extended to 2.47x (98th percentile, 90-day high) with longPct at 71.2% (98th). SOL and XRP L/S also stretched at 2.75x and 2.93x. Liquidations calm at $20.9M BTC and $28.3M ETH (both below the 38th percentile). Shorts covered while longs added on ETH: net positioning at the 90-day extreme.
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BTC saw -$996M over 7 days (worse than last week's -$867M) but the streak flipped from -1 to +1. ETH posted -$136M over 7 days on a +2-session streak (up from -2). Holdings unchanged: BTC at 7.0% of supply (66th), ETH at 3.8% (low at the 19th). AUM: BTC $108.0B (66th) versus ETH $9.6B at the 3rd percentile. The signal is an inflection beginning, not a confirmation.
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USDC supply hit a 90-day low at $65.6B (0th percentile) with a -$1.4B 7-day net mint (1st percentile), the deepest contraction in the dataset. USDT supply at $188.0B (89th percentile, 90-day high) with velocity at 1.85x. USDe expanded +$100M with mint/burn at 5.8x, and PYUSD jumped to the 31st percentile (from 4th) with mint/burn at 1.76x. The rotation is into smaller yield-bearing stables, not into BTC or ETH risk.
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Total DeFi lending TVL at $27.7B (7th percentile), near flat from last week's 0th. Utilization at AaveV3 at 41.2% (75th+). The headline shift is borrow rates: all-protocol borrow APR jumped to 4.7% from 2.3%, with compoundv3 spiking to 49.5% APR (90-day high) on stable utilization. Liquidations calm at $418K (was $1.4M). Revenue 7d at $2.7M, up from $1.5M: protocol health improving despite the borrow rate surge.
Universe. Spot and derivatives data cover BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, UNI, AAVE and WLFI across the major institutional venues: Binance, Bybit and OKX. Stablecoin coverage spans USDT, USDC, DAI, USDS, USDe and the long tail across Ethereum, Tron, Arbitrum, Optimism, Avalanche, Polygon, BNB Chain and Base. DeFi lending metrics aggregate Aave v2/v3, Compound v2/v3 and MakerDAO across EVM chains.
Price construction. The headline close on each asset references the highest-volume instrument on each day, typically the Binance perpetual for BTC and ETH. VWAP is volume-weighted across all instruments and venues for the day, computed as the sum of close times volume divided by total volume. All return-based metrics, including realized volatility, rolling correlation, skewness and kurtosis, derive from the cross-venue VWAP series rather than any single venue's last print. Using VWAP avoids non-deterministic aggregation noise that would otherwise contaminate rolling windows.
Realized volatility. Annualised standard deviation of daily log returns, scaled by sqrt(365). 7D RVol uses a 7-day trailing window, 30D uses 30. The RV ratio (7D divided by 30D) flags acceleration when above 1 and deceleration when below.
Cross-asset correlation. Rolling Pearson on daily log returns of VWAP. 30D and 90D windows reported on the BTC and ETH series.
Polarity. Every metric carries a polarity flag describing whether higher values are positive, negative or neutral for the asset or market. Bullish metrics (polarity +1) include net flows, holdings, volumes and TVL, where higher is better. Bearish metrics (polarity -1) include liquidations and funding rates, where higher signals stress (positive funding means longs are paying shorts). Neutral metrics (polarity 0) cover supply levels, dominance, chain share, options Greeks, macro reference series, and most positioning and rates context fields, where direction has no inherent good or bad interpretation. Polarity is set per metric in the catalog and feeds the colour rules below.
Percentile rankings and colouring. Every "90D Pctl" indicator computes the rank of the current value within its trailing 90-day distribution. The colour applied to a cell combines polarity with percentile rank. For bullish-polarity metrics, values near the recent high tint green and values near the recent low tint red. For bearish-polarity metrics the mapping inverts: values near the recent high tint red, values near the recent low tint green. Neutral-polarity metrics tint amber throughout, with deeper amber near the high and low extremes of the distribution; the colour conveys position in the 90-day range without implying good or bad. Across all polarities, shade intensity (light versus dark) scales with proximity to the distribution edge.
Sign-aware flow colouring. Flow-type metrics (ETF daily flows, stablecoin net mints) apply an additional sign-aware rule on top of the percentile-rank colour. On a bullish-polarity flow metric, negative values always tint red and positive values always tint green, with intensity still drawn from the percentile rank. This prevents a "less negative than usual" outflow from rendering green just because the 90-day distribution skews negative.
ETF flow streak. Signed consecutive days of same-direction flow, counted only over days with non-zero reported flow. Weekend rows and any rows preceding a delayed source refresh carry the prior streak forward without incrementing.
Liquidity. Spot order-book depth measured at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 basis points from mid-price, summed across the covered venues. Depth values are USD-equivalent at the venue's mid. Spread metrics report the bid-ask spread in basis points; lower readings reflect tighter, more liquid markets.
Funding and basis. Perpetual swap funding rates are sampled at the venue's reporting interval (typically 8 hours) and annualised. Cumulative funding sums the realised rate over 7, 30 and 90-day rolling windows. Term basis (7D, 30D, 90D, 180D) is derived from the quarterly futures premium to spot, annualised to APR. The term spread captures the slope across the front-month and back-month basis curves.
DeFi. Lending metrics (TVL, total borrowed, utilization, borrow APR, liquidations, protocol revenue) sourced from on-chain protocol contracts via daily aggregations. The ETH borrow-vs-staking spread compares the cross-protocol weighted-average ETH borrow APR against the 7-day staking APY for ETH-collateral liquid staking tokens including ankrETH, cbETH, lsETH, oETH, sfrxETH, stETH, swETH and wbETH.
Refresh cadence. Reports build T+1 from end-of-day data. ETF flow data refreshes on US trading days only; weekend rows reflect the Friday close. Source freshness is verified at build time, and sections drawing on delayed upstream data carry an explicit "As of [date]" label in the panel title.
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