Welcome to Amberdata’s End-of-Year Report for 2024. At Amberdata, our mission is to shed light on these rapid developments by analyzing a broad range of metrics—from Gini Coefficients and holder distributions to UTXO analytics and funding-rate differentials—combining both on-chain and off-chain data. Whether you’re tracking whale flows for institutional insight, evaluating stablecoin liquidity for a DeFi project, or navigating the derivatives market as a retail trader, our platform provides the depth and breadth of intelligence needed for confident, data-driven decision-making.
In this report, we explore Bitcoin’s key metrics and evolving market dynamics. This is the first installment in a comprehensive four-part series that dives into Ethereum’s on-chain performance in Part 2, examines stablecoin trends in Part 3, and analyzes the shifting landscape of exchanges and derivatives in Part 4. Download the full report here.
Drawing on metrics such as the Gini Coefficient, holder and supply distributions, and UTXO behaviors, our data shows Bitcoin’s ownership slightly consolidating among large holders while mid-tier addresses (100–1000 BTC) expand their share of total supply. These shifts hint at renewed whale interest—an important signal for near-term volatility—and a deeper institutional footprint alongside retail growth. Indicators like liveliness vs. HODL net change reveal when dormant coins re-enter circulation, while NUPL and MVRV ratios confirm that most of the market remains in profit. Miner outflows and capitulation signals remain sporadic, suggesting that revenue pressures are largely being managed. Finally, ETF allocation data provides a lens on how major asset managers have adjusted their Bitcoin holdings month by month, reflecting sentiment swings around key market and regulatory events.
Over the past two years, Bitcoin’s Gini coefficient has generally oscillated between 0.465 and 0.472, indicating relatively modest shifts in ownership concentration. Notably, the last three months (October–December 2024) show a slight climb from 0.4657 to 0.4664, reversing the broader downtrend seen during the summer. This mild uptick suggests that larger holders may be re-consolidating, though not aggressively enough to drive the coefficient toward previous highs around 0.4716 (March 2024).
For traders and institutional stakeholders, this subtle increase in concentration could signal that whales are selectively re-accumulating—potentially ahead of anticipated price moves or macroeconomic shifts. While smaller addresses still play a significant role in absorbing supply, the data hints at a market that remains sensitive to whale activity. In the near term, if concentration continues rising, short-term volatility could become more pronounced. However, the overall range-bound nature of the Gini coefficient since early 2023 points to an ecosystem that remains relatively balanced, likely supporting a more measured pace of price discovery going into the new year.
Bitcoin’s December 2024 distribution snapshot reveals a stark imbalance in how holdings are spread across different address sizes. Over 21% of addresses contain just 0.001–0.01 BTC, yet these micro-holders collectively control only around 0.22% of total supply. Meanwhile, addresses with 1,000–10,000 BTC—likely institutional players or large-scale whales—comprise just 0.0036% of the holder base but command over 23% of the supply. Even the 10,000+ BTC cohort, representing only 0.00018% of all addresses, manages to hold nearly 15% of total coins.
This heavily skewed distribution highlights a classic “whale effect,” where a small number of large holders wield considerable market power. Smaller addresses, though numerous, collectively own a fraction of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, suggesting that large institutional and high-net-worth entities dominate price influence. For traders, these patterns imply that major moves by a few big wallets can rapidly shift market sentiment. Meanwhile, smaller holders remain more of a supporting force, offering incremental liquidity rather than driving sweeping price changes.
Over the past two years, addresses holding 100–1000 BTC have noticeably increased their share of the total supply, rising from about 20.28% in January 2023 to over 22.55% by December 2024. This bracket typically includes smaller institutional investors, hedge funds, and high-net-worth individuals—entities large enough to accumulate significant positions but not on the scale of major whales. Their steady growth suggests a concerted, ongoing accumulation that may help stabilize the market by distributing supply more evenly than in the past.
In practical terms, these mid-tier addresses tend to hold for longer horizons, dampening volatility that might otherwise be driven by short-term, sentiment-driven trading. As a result, traders could see fewer abrupt price swings triggered by a single large wallet move. Instead, a broader base of moderately sized holders often provides consistent demand on dips. Overall, the rising influence of these 100–1000 BTC players points to a maturing market, with deeper liquidity and potentially more sustained price support.
From July to December 2024, the smallest address buckets (0–0.001 BTC and 0.001–0.01 BTC) have swung notably in count, sometimes adding hundreds of thousands of new addresses one month and then contracting the next. These fluctuations suggest that retail or casual entrants come in bursts—likely driven by short-term sentiment or price volatility—before some exit or consolidate. Meanwhile, moderately sized buckets (0.1–1 BTC, 1–10 BTC) show more measured growth or, in some months, mild contraction, indicating that mid-range holders may be a bit more cautious or reactive to near-term market conditions. At the higher end, the 100–1000 BTC cohort stands out for its net increase in address count over this six-month window, hinting at ongoing accumulation by smaller institutions or high-net-worth individuals. This pattern implies a gradual shift toward “stronger hands” that could help stabilize prices over the longer term.
Looking at the same July–December 2024 window from a supply perspective, the largest decreases appear in buckets like 1–10 BTC, 10–100 BTC and 1000–10000 BTC which have seen net outflows in several of those months. This suggests either profit-taking or rotation by addresses that previously held mid-range amounts. In contrast, the 100–1000 BTC bucket has recorded substantial inflows—sometimes by tens of thousands of BTC—indicating that this second- or third-largest tier is absorbing the supply leaving smaller brackets. Such accumulation by mid-level institutional players or wealthy individuals could reduce market volatility, as these entities often hold with a longer-term view. Overall, the data shows a redistribution from some larger segments into this concentrated mid-tier, potentially creating a more stable price floor and signaling a gradual consolidation of supply into the hands of holders with stronger conviction.
Over the past quarter, both the 30-day and 90-day rolling correlations between Bitcoin’s liveliness and HODL net position change have remained consistently negative, though the degree of negativity has fluctuated. In simpler terms, when liveliness (a metric indicating more coins moving on-chain) rises, net HODL accumulation often falls, and vice versa. Notably, there was a period in mid-November where the 30-day correlation dipped below −0.70, suggesting an amplified inverse relationship: as older coins were spent (increasing liveliness), the market saw a pronounced decrease in net HODL positions.
Since then, the correlations have oscillated between roughly −0.10 and −0.50, indicating that while the inverse relationship remains intact, it’s somewhat less extreme than during November’s spike. The 90-day correlation, meanwhile, has drifted toward the lower end of that range, highlighting that, on a longer horizon, movement of older coins generally coincides with reduced net HODLing activity. Traders and institutions should monitor these signals closely, as strong negative correlations often precede short-term volatility, reflecting how sudden spurts of selling from long-term holders can temporarily weigh on broader market sentiment.
Over the past few months, HODL Ratio has trended lower—from around 0.394 in early October to roughly 0.378 by late December—indicating that more previously dormant coins are moving. This downward shift often reflects long-term holders spending or redistributing their assets, contributing to increased circulation.
Net Position Change (Daily) has seen multiple negative spikes, particularly in early December, where outflows exceeded 100k BTC on some days. This aligns with the declining HODL Ratio and underscores how a wave of distribution from previously static wallets can momentarily weigh on prices and sentiment. Going forward, a reversal to positive net position changes would signal renewed accumulation by longer-term participants.
Over the past three months, we’ve seen a consistent increase in overall UTXO counts across nearly all age brackets. Notably, the 3–6 Months and 6–12 Months buckets have grown at a faster pace than older categories like 5–8 Years, suggesting that a substantial portion of recent buyers are now holding onto their positions longer rather than quickly cycling back into the market. Meanwhile, very old UTXOs (5+ years) continue to rise steadily—albeit at a slower rate—implying that a significant cadre of “diamond hands” remains committed.
Another key takeaway is the growth in mid-range buckets (1–2 Years and 2–3 Years), which reflects ongoing transitions from short-term to more medium-term holding behavior. This trend often correlates with greater market stability, as coins become more “mature” and less likely to be spent on short-term price fluctuations. If these patterns hold, we can expect further broadening of the UTXO age distribution—particularly in the 6–12 Months and 1–2 Years brackets—indicating a maturing cohort of holders who appear content to keep their BTC off exchanges and in cold storage for the longer run.
Throughout the last few months, we’ve observed a gradual but consistent rise in total BTC value held across most age buckets. Notably, the 3–5 Years and 5–8 Years brackets have slowly inched higher, suggesting that a portion of seasoned holders remain committed to long-term storage rather than capitulating or rotating funds. Meanwhile, mid-range buckets—especially 6–12 Months and 12–18 Months—demonstrate active participation from more recent investors who appear comfortable locking in positions.
Shorter-term cohorts (e.g., Under 1 Day to 1 Week) have also fluctuated in tandem with short-term trading activity, indicating periodic profit-taking or rebalancing. Overall, the data underscores a market trending toward broader holder confidence, with older UTXOs retaining their value and mid-tier addresses consistently adding to positions. This balanced spread may help mitigate volatility while laying a foundation for incremental price growth.
Over the past three months, highly liquid BTC supply has dipped slightly, while liquid BTC holdings have held relatively steady before showing a mild uptick in mid-November. In contrast, illiquid supply—coins that rarely move—remains notably high, underscoring that a majority of BTC remains locked in longer-term storage. This imbalance points to lingering confidence among large holders and long-term participants who are reluctant to sell despite price fluctuations.
For traders, the modest decrease in highly liquid coins signals potential for tighter on-exchange supply, sometimes setting the stage for sharper price moves if demand rises suddenly. Meanwhile, the relatively stable liquid bucket hints that moderate trading activity is still ongoing—enough to support daily volumes without pushing major shifts. Overall, these trends suggest a gradually maturing market, where illiquid BTC remains the dominant force, and short-term supply dynamics in the highly liquid bracket could drive bouts of volatility, especially around macro-driven news or major market events.
Over the last several months, NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) has remained consistently above zero, signaling that a majority of the market’s coin supply is held at prices below the current market price. This steady positive posture often points to a mid- to long-term bullish bias, as more participants are “in the money,” providing resilience against major sell-offs. Meanwhile, supply in profit has remained high, indicative of broad profitability across holders and reflecting healthier sentiment compared to late 2022 or early 2023 levels.
However, when a large share of the market is in profit, there’s always a chance of short-term profit-taking. The key question is whether buying demand is sufficient to absorb these sales, sustaining an uptrend. So far, on-chain data suggests the market has maintained solid support, highlighting an overall environment of optimism and relative confidence among holders.
Over the last three months (roughly late September through late December), All Addresses initially trended upward—from the mid-700k range to above 800k—before tapering to around the mid-700k mark by late December. This suggests a phase of pronounced adoption or renewed interest, followed by a modest pullback as market activity cooled. Meanwhile, New Addresses peaked in November (moving from around 310k to the mid-330k level), then dipped back near 300k, indicating that the influx of fresh participants slowed as the year-end approached.
Passive Addresses steadily rose in the fall, surpassing 500k, reflecting a portion of users opting to hold rather than trade. By December, passive counts remained relatively high, suggesting continued caution or a wait-and-see approach amid possible market uncertainties. For market stakeholders—from retail traders to institutions—these fluctuations can signal short-term sentiment shifts (e.g., profit-taking or holiday slowdowns) and longer-term user growth. Overall, the net rise in All Addresses over the quarter points to steady market engagement despite the recent dip, fitting into a broader context of ongoing sector maturation.
Over roughly the past three months (early September through late December), New Inputs saw a notable climb through mid-fall, followed by a plateau and slight dip as the year-end approached. This pattern suggests a burst of capital inflows or transaction initiations—often reflecting renewed trading activity or fresh liquidity entering the market—before moderation set in. Meanwhile, New Outputs also experienced peaks around late November, indicating heightened transaction completions or fund transfers. By December, there was a slight retreat, implying fewer outgoing transactions or a shift toward holding rather than frequent redistribution.
For market participants, these New Inputs peaks often align with surges in buying interest, while expansions in New Outputs can indicate profit-taking or strategic rebalancing. Such fluctuating levels of transaction initiations and completions can signal shifting sentiment: bullish momentum in the fall, tempered by more cautious holiday-season trading. Viewed in a broader market context, the capacity for both New Inputs and New Outputs to trend upward over months underscores healthy transactional flow and continued engagement, even amidst seasonal slowdowns.
Between early July and late December, BTC’s price rose notably—from the low $60Ks to near the $100K mark by the year’s end. While there are brief pullbacks in late August and around mid-October, each drop is relatively short-lived, and the general trajectory remains bullish as investors appear confident in BTC’s long-term potential.
During the same period, the BTC Stock-to-Flow Ratio climbs from the mid-60s to beyond 90, implying that BTC’s perceived scarcity is growing or that the market anticipates an even more constrained supply relative to demand. A rising ratio typically aligns with expectations of future price appreciation, although near-term volatility can still emerge from broader market forces or seasonal trading patterns.
In practical terms, a Yardstick rising in tandem with price often suggests greater conviction behind the rally—implying more robust fundamentals or increased network activity. For retail traders and institutional investors alike, these higher Yardstick levels can signal that market participants are comfortable with (or even enthusiastic about) current valuations. However, the volatility inherent in both data series means corrections can arise if sentiment cools or if profit-taking sets in. Overall, the strong alignment between higher Yardstick and surging prices in the last three months points to a bullish environment underpinned by supportive on-chain conditions—though periodic pullbacks are normal in a rapidly expanding market.
The Puell Multiple is typically calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s daily issuance (in USD) by its long-term average (often a 365-day moving average). In April, the halving reduced daily issuance, causing a noticeable drop in the Multiple as overall miner revenues shrank. However, by Q4 the metric trended higher again, reflecting both constrained supply and renewed market demand. This climb often hints at rising miner profitability and possible selling pressure—but not necessarily capitulation. Over recent months, minor fluctuations in the Multiple aligned with price action but lacked the extreme peaks seen previously. Overall, the modest Q4 rise in the Multiple suggests miners are benefiting from better margins, yet there’s no indication of the intense distribution that could derail broader market sentiment.
Reserve Risk illustrates how much “reward” (current price levels) entices holders to spend, relative to the “confidence” or conviction of long-term participants (the HODL Bank). It is measured by dividing the current price (reward) by an estimate of confidence (HODL Bank), thereby capturing the ratio of enticement to conviction. When Reserve Risk is low, it implies that even if prices are relatively high or volatile, many holders remain confident—choosing to keep their coins despite tempting profits. Conversely, a surging Reserve Risk often signals heightened sell pressure, as prices have climbed enough to tempt these holders to realize gains.
In practice, a persistently low Reserve Risk (e.g., near 0.0009–0.0011 range) can indicate a resilient market foundation—long-term investors are steady, limiting large capitulation events. By contrast, as Reserve Risk rises above thresholds like 0.0012–0.0014, more experienced investors see conditions as ripe for profit-taking.
Ultimately, Reserve Risk helps gauge how macro sentiment shifts: it captures when long-term holders collectively pivot from confidence in future growth to opportunistic selling, shaping key turning points in Bitcoin’s market trajectory.
From around late September 2024 into December 2024, Market Cap has moved firmly upward—from the low $1.2T–$1.3T range to crossing above $1.9T. Meanwhile, the Realized Cap (which tracks the aggregated cost basis of all coins at the price last transacted) has grown more gradually, reflecting a steadier long-term “floor” of investor entry. This gap widening between Market Cap and Realized Cap is evident in the MVRV ratio (Market Value / Realized Value), which has climbed from around 1.8–1.9 to well over 2.0 in many recent data points.
In practical terms, when MVRV rises notably, it suggests the broader market is increasingly in profit—potentially leading to more volatile sentiment, as some participants may lock in gains. Retail traders often interpret high MVRV as an overextension that could prompt corrections. Institutions, however, may view it as confirmation of bullish momentum and strong on-chain fundamentals. Short term, sharp MVRV spikes can coincide with profit-taking or local pullbacks. Longer term, consistently higher realized caps point to renewed confidence and capital inflows—underscoring that demand remains robust despite any short-lived market fluctuations.
Over the past few months, Miner Outflows and Capitulation Index have shown brief but notable spikes, suggesting moments when cost-sensitive miners face revenue pressures and decide to sell additional Bitcoin. However, the 30-day moving averages (MA30) for these metrics appear steady, indicating that the majority of miners remain resilient and are not offloading on a large scale. Similarly, the Miner Supply Spent occasionally shows elevated short-term selling activity, but their smoothed (MA30) readings do not reflect any prolonged capitulation trend. This suggests that most miners are able to weather temporary price swings without resorting to continuous selling.
Overall, these dynamics point to a healthier market environment: local selling pressure arises when operational costs spike, yet no prolonged miner-driven sell wave emerges. This resilience typically supports market stability, reducing the risk of a sustained downturn triggered by major miner capitulation.
Over recent months, Miner Outflows have shown occasional upticks, often coinciding with periods when operational expenses or market uncertainty pressure certain mining operations to sell more Bitcoin. At the same time, the Miner Position Index has recorded comparable surges, implying that a segment of miners briefly shifts from net holding to net selling. However, the 30-day moving averages (MA30) for both metrics remain relatively stable, suggesting that these surges are short-lived rather than indicative of an ongoing pattern.
As a result, most miners appear capable of maintaining their positions without continuous large-scale sell-offs. This is further evidenced by a lack of persistent downward momentum: once cost or market conditions improve, miners typically revert to holding rather than liquidating. Taken together, the data implies that while localized revenue pressures can spur brief waves of miner-driven selling, the larger miner community remains generally resilient and less inclined toward sustained capitulation.
Bitcoin’s April Halving immediately halved block rewards, reducing issuance and reinforcing its scarcity narrative. Post-Halving, fewer new BTC entered circulation daily, temporarily pressuring cost-sensitive miners who faced sharply reduced revenue. Some sold additional coins to cover operational costs, yet on-chain data does not reveal a deep, sustained miner capitulation.
From a market standpoint, this event tends to be bullish over time: as incoming supply tightens, any steady or rising demand can push price momentum higher. History suggests that past Halvings eventually contributed to renewed bullish sentiment, though short-term volatility often followed the reward cut.
Overall, Halving's lowered issuance ratio supports the “digital gold” thesis, fueling longer-term accumulation behavior. This scarcity mechanism typically underscores Bitcoin’s store-of-value potential, as miners adjust to reduced block rewards while broader market participants anticipate supply-driven price appreciation.
These holdings have practical ramifications for market liquidity and price stability. For instance, the strong upticks by Franklin Templeton and WisdomTree—both surpassing 6,000 BTC and 11,600 BTC respectively by December—suggest broader acceptance of Bitcoin as a key investment instrument. In turn, this rising institutional footprint often begets more cautious but consistent inflows from traditional finance circles, fueling further adoption. Strategically, many of these entities seem intent on scaling up quickly when sentiment is bullish, only to rebalance if volatility emerges. Overall, the upward trajectory in ETF-owned BTC points to a market gradually shifting from speculative retail dominance toward a steadier, institutionally driven phase.
Over the past six months, BlackRock has been the unmistakable outlier, steadily amassing vast Bitcoin reserves each month. Their month-on-month increments (+37,000 BTC in July, +14,100 in August, then leaping by around +62,000 and +72,400 toward year’s end) underscore a potent, long-term confidence in BTC’s upside. In contrast, Fidelity oscillated sharply, adding +13,700 in July, dropping –10,300 in August, then surging again in November (+8,600) before a hefty –20,400 sell-off in December. Such swings hint at an adaptive, possibly more opportunistic trading stance when volatility spikes.
Meanwhile, 21Shares and Bitwise displayed smaller yet frequent reversals, suggesting short-term repositioning based on price or sentiment shifts. Grayscale Mini, after a large +26,900 in July, has grown more gradually, culminating in near-flat activity by December. Invesco also saw modest but consistent positives until a notable –1,900 in December, potentially indicating year-end portfolio rebalancing. Valkyrie and VanEck have generally posted modest gains—except for a few dips—while WisdomTree remained subdued until a dramatic +7,800 jump in December, perhaps responding to a perceived market dip.
Collectively, these ETF inflows and outflows highlight a market with divergent strategies—some players committing heavily and steadily (BlackRock), others reacting to monthly volatility (Fidelity, Bitwise), and a few adopting smaller-scale adjustments. The interplay of these approaches shapes overall sentiment, reinforcing both the possibility of strong institutional buy-in and the ever-present caution in a dynamic Bitcoin environment.
Overall, the data presents a landscape with multiple signals tilting bullish as we enter the new year. Despite minor upticks in the Gini Coefficient, Bitcoin’s ownership distribution remains relatively balanced, suggesting that while whale activity may drive short-term volatility, it has not disrupted the broader market’s growth trajectory. The continued rise of mid-tier holders (100–1000 BTC) underscores this more distributed ownership, hinting at a steadily maturing market where institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals play a larger but stabilizing role.
On-chain metrics reinforce this constructive view. Liveliness vs. HODL net change correlations show mostly manageable, short-lived bursts of coin movement, while negative spikes in net position change have yet to trigger extended sell-offs. UTXO age and value distributions continue to expand across medium- and long-term brackets, indicating that newer entrants are evolving into longer-term participants—a dynamic often correlated with fewer abrupt price swings. Miner-related data also remains broadly supportive: temporary outflows and capitulation signals spike occasionally, but the longer-term averages reveal that most mining operations remain financially resilient.
Meanwhile, the halving’s effects—reduced issuance, a higher Stock-to-Flow Ratio, and rising Puell Multiple—reinforce Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative without inciting miner-driven capitulation. Institutional demand via ETFs corroborates this story: month-on-month data shows that while some asset managers tactically rebalance in response to volatility, overall ETF holdings continue to climb. This growing institutional footprint provides deeper liquidity and a more stable market floor, bolstering Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value and an investable asset class.
Taken together, these findings point to a market that, although susceptible to short-term fluctuations, is structurally positioning itself for continued upside. The confluence of steadily growing mid-tier address cohorts, disciplined long-term holders, resilient mining activity, and increasing institutional buy-in paints a picture of cautious optimism. While momentary sell pressure and price corrections are inevitable in any fast-evolving asset, the overarching trend appears decidedly bullish—laying the groundwork for further price discovery and adoption in 2025.
This is only Part 1, so if you want to read the full report, including detailed analyses of Ethereum, stablecoins, exchanges, and derivatives, click here.
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