Tuesday 9:45a: PMI
Thursday 8:30a: GDP
Friday 8:30a: PCE
Disclaimer: Nothing here is trading advice or solicitation. This is for educational purposes only.
Authors have holdings in BTC, ETH, and Lyra and may change their holdings anytime.
This upcoming week we have a rather small amount of economic data releases, for the exception of PCE.
The big macro moving pieces will be focused on developments for the US election.
We have Joe Biden who just announced today that he will be stepping down from the 2024 election race and endorsed Kamala Harris.
Should Harris also not be the nominee, then we will see a lot of things potentially move this week.
President Trump is also scheduled to speak on 7/27 in Nashville for the Bitcoin Conference, this is sure to be bullish. Trump is likely to talk up his crypto stance as much as possible, which in my opinion, could be a catalyst for BTC to break into new ATH’s past $73k.
Next week, FOMC and NFP will be the big market-moving macro events.
BTC: $68,018 (+11.2% / 7-day)
ETH :$3,531 (+8.8% / 7-day)
SOL :$183.28 (+23.1% / 7-day)
As mentioned earlier, this week we’re going to hear Trump speak at the Nashville Bitcoin conference. As long as Trump remains a front-runner, this is potential catalyst for "something to happen” this week.
The derivative markets seem to agree, we’re seeing pricing support the “something is about to happen” narrative!
Chart: 7-day BTC Variance Risk Premium
As BTC rallies towards a new ATH and the BTC conference nears, the option market has seen an expansion in the VRP (implied volatility pricing in excess of realized volatility).
Today it stands at nearly +30pts.
This is not only a reflection of lower realized volatility, but also increasing implied volatility.
Chart: BTC Term Structure w/w
To further highlight this fact, you can see the large +10pts shift higher in IV week-over-week.
Chart: ∆25 BTC Butterfly Chart
Something we don’t often talk about, but merits a shoutout this week, is the spike higher in ∆25 wings versus ATM volatility.
This type of activity in the option market reflects the anticipation for higher return distribution “Kurtosis” or “Fat-Tails”.
Although not as high as October 2023, this shift higher vs last week is real.
Not to mention October 2023 saw an exceptional move higher for BTC prices.
Chart: Dealer Gamma Exposure
Looking at the dealer inventory of the options market, we see that the jump higher in implied volatility is driven by real buying demand from the street.
Dealers are short A LOT of optionality at the $70,000 strike as investors anticipate an explosion through $70k and into new ATHs.
Chart: Net Inventory Gamma Exposure
Net gamma exposure across the board, is near the shortest levels ever seen for dealers.
Chart: Futures and Perps Open Interest
Delta one products have also seen a buildup in open interest week-over-week. Today the total OI is near YTD highs.
Chart: 90-day BTC Basis
Despite the high open interest in delta one products, the futures basis isn’t overly elevated and suggests that longs aren’t overpaying here. There’s more room to run higher in Basis, which I’d expect to happen should BTC break past $73k.
TL:DR - Something is going to happen this week! Could this potentially signal BTC is breaking higher to new ATHs?!
BTC +2.80% / ETH +0.37% / NDX -4.60%
Paradigm Top Trades This Week
Crypto markets remained active, ending the week positive. ETH ended the week +8.43% and oSQTH ended the week at +14.88%.
oSQTH IV remains sub 60% vs. its ref vol. at 74.93%.
Crab saw gains ending the week +0.16%.
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AMBERDATA DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this research is for educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. None of the information in this report constitutes, or should be relied on as a suggestion, offer, or other solicitation to engage in, or refrain from engaging, in any purchase, sale, or any other investment-related activity. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature. Don't invest more than what you can afford to lose.